My bet is on $1.45mil :P

23p!

I must admit I've absolutely no idea where it'll end up. I'm stunned that it was funded in just 12 hours.

Can we specify a random currency just to make it more interesting? Preferably including currencies that aren't, well, current.

LoL how could we then compared in the end but them on USD then add the conversion to currency you want.

I knew it would be raised in 24h they did a successful KS and really took care of the fanbase really well with good comms. But It's a total guess in how many more new founders they will bring to the KS campaign.

Based on PoE and Wastelands 2 fundings, combined with D:OS's success minus the decrease of Kickstarter raised funds for games that's been going on for a while...

I estimate a 3 million ending figure.

I'll bet for 2.5M

it MUST be at least 1.2m b/c i WANT that undead race and SHOULD be at least 1.5m b/c i actually want EVERYTHING

actually raised my pledge just to get those undead walking!

It will be interesting seeing total it will end up raising, D:OS had 19500 backers D:OS II has already ~19500 so you can't say for now how many of those are the previous backers and those who are new backers.

The average pledge is slightly lower, I guess it reflects how you seem to be paying for less rewards per pledge and no boxed games except for the 125$ which is 30$ more expensive that before.

If they released enhanced edition about mid campaign maybe get AJ to do an Angry Review plus the extra buzz from the past successful KS campaign they might go over 2mil but still think 3mil is a bit far fetch.

Swen told october for EE.
Campaign will end at the start of october.

2.5M to 3M I say, If it's more it will be incredible to see.

I bet 2M. Unless the Chris Avellone stretch goal is at a higher level, and then it will be at that level.

I agree with Kevinik on the guess (2.5-3M), and that more would be better. I was a little conservative hoping the D:OS kickstarter would reach the 800K stretch goal, so I'll be optimistic this time.

According to Kicktraq it's now trending towards 10 million. LOL Obviously that's not going to happen, but that would be *hilarious*. I'm keeping my fingers crossed, that would just be epic.

that would be kickass to hit the Hall of the Echoes stretch goal but that is really a shitload of money...
let's be optimistic, I bet on 1.8M

Did some calculations

Took some (IMO) comparable projects and tried to forecast DOS2 (actually I derive a pattern based on moving averages of past kickstarters (partly extrapolated due to different durations) and used polynomial trend model on DOS2). I did this in about 1 hour, so statistically not very sophisticated, but lets see, if I will be right



edit: redone - better data/adjusted

I dunno, 2 mil? But I hope their swimming in it when EE is released for the consoles.

remember, its a forecast. id est: "better guessing". so, if DOS2 kickstarter resembles the pattern of the average of some other kickstarter there is some likeness that we will see 2mill at the end. nothing more nothing less.

I'm guessing 1.9M.

Also relying on past game kickstarters can be misleading because repeat kickstarters can be more front-loaded - e.g. see Bard's Tale IV which made 1M in day 3 but ended up with 1.5M. I'd guess all the gamers who are interested in backing on Kickstarters tend to already know about it and back on the first week, and relatively little happens later on (at least compared to previous years when it was new). I'd love to be wrong though because I like all the stretch-goals so far!

The current low in progression is probably because a lack of actual updates regarding some raised questions that keep people who care about those questions from backing D:OS 2... (SP, Paypal and Chris Avellone)

I would peg this KS currently even lower, at about 1.7m

It's in Larians hands...

1.5 mil

The steep drop I expected - fits my (or rather multiple other kickstarter's) pattern quite well. So, in my terms still on track

I will bet that the game will get just over the 1.5mil mark. Of course that is if it remains on course now.

If Larian hits the campaign trail like last time in the 2nd half, I can see $2mil. Especially if they sit down and do some live streams Q and A Twitch sessions.

29 days to go and only needing $400k for the last stretch goal.

If they get more then 2.5mil I'll be really surprised. Though I do like being surprised with good news

I believe 2.5m are absolutely possible.

I don't think we're going to make more than that, but I'd be very surprised if it ends up significantly lower.

2.5m is a shitload of money.
We cannot expect as much money in the upcomming days as they got the 4 firsts days. Truly I don't expect them to raise that much money in the 25 next days. However, some last minutes backers should pledge in the last 5 days as usual but they should not bring in as much money a in the 4 firsts days...
so wait and see. I am confident in my 1.8M guess^^

Up to $1,110,000. Keep in mind that kickstarter takes a 10% cut so Larian actually now has $1mil to fund improvements in the game. This figure is what Swen put out in his blog during the D:OS Kickstarter.


...oh don't you worry. He'll be a number crunching and putting out those graphs. Sometimes I look forward to his blog updates more then an actual game update!

but the KS-cut is not taken into account when considering stretch Goals, is it?

No, it isn't.

thought so

Can you imagine the horrible math if it went off any potential kickstarter percentages? Frankly I am lost after 20 on any scale. Seriously how do you people do numbers after you run out of fingers & toes?!?

it depends on how kickstarter calcs its cut, but in the simplest case it would be

[summed kickstarter pledges so far] * 0.9 = sum to be taken for stretch goals

Seems like it after the stretch goals were announce and seeing already a 23% increase of backers compared to the first one when still 27 days to go and taking taking to dip under the 10k daily raises..

What will be interesting will be seeing the final days and see how much last minute backers will raise this is the most thing difficult thing to predict.

Well as of now...27 days to go!

25,531
backers
$1,157,637
pledged of $500,000 goal

That averages out to $45.34 per person. $40.81 profit per backer after KS cut.

The game will be worth at least $50-60 per copy.

$342,363 left to go.

If each backer-to-be would spend $45.34 (the average) each, then it would take about 7551 more backers to reach 1.5mil. Quite a bit to go yet.

They would get very close if they would sell out of the Physical Collector's Edition.

new tiers inc.
that may attract new backers as well

yeah I am really curious about the new tiers, there is serious a lack available tiers between 200$ and 700$ :p

26,320
backers
$1,192,825
pledged of $500,000 goal

Looks like Undead Lore will be unlocked.

400 bucks to go
Let's all be undead

AND DONE

Well if the remaining backers average $40, then at 33667 total backers we should get the last stretch goal.

Little over 3 weeks to go... I wonder how close I'll get to my estimate.

Wait a second, someone wants to have Chris Avellone as stretch goal yet again even when he is not related at all the the franchise?

they are planning add ons - that might raise the total sum since existing backers will pledge more

Well there are a lot of PoE Backers who would back anything as long as he is attached to it. Personally I just think it'd be nice to have someone in writing capacity that actually knows how RPG characters and their backstory/quests are written without them becoming caricatures of character stereotypes. ^^

well well 14 days to go, 1 451k so far my guess is still valid... it will depend on the last days ^^

I definitely DON'T want Avellone near Original Sin or Larian... Not that I do not like the guy ( I'm not very impressed though ), but I'd rather see Larian keep his uniqueness.

Chris Avellone is an outstanding writer and currently the BEST in the video game industry. I'm saying this with utmost confidence. There is not a single other person who can write as masterfully as he. I may sound like a fanboy, but I'm not. I respect him as a true artist which is worlds apart from fanboyism. I don't think Avellone and Larian would work together, but Larian won't lose its uniqueness if they include him. They can only gain. His work with characters and concepts would ground the narrative, making it a character-driven plot (like it should be) and bring a philosophical twist unique to the Divinity universe.

P.S. I am actually waiting for PayPal, because Kickstarter doesn't accept my particular brand of debit card.

It's coming!

I suggest Larian extend the KS period and also tell us much more about SP.

kickstarter cannot be extended but if I am not mistaken there will be the paypal pledging and steam early access

Oh right, they can't. Though maybe they'll do a second KS to reach those goals?

Highly unlikely. Not only have we reached the original funding goal for this project, we have almost tripled that amount with a little under 2 weeks to go. Paypal will be coming. One of the issues with paypal that I am aware of is the money is paid immediately regardless if the project reaches the funding level. Kickstarter won't take any money period until the project has ended and the funding amount reached. Those 2 philosophies don't play well together.

Fortunatly the KS campaign was successful so there won't be an issue of money taken from paypal and not from KS pledges.

Also, Larian will publicly announce how much they received from PayPal and add that total to the KS goals.

Well I'm going to bed. We are at...


32,158
backers
$1,478,707
pledged of $500,000 goal
13
days to go

I am doubtful we'll make the $2mil. Though I doubt Swen expected the campaign to be as successful as it has been. I'm sure the next game will hit $2mil and beyond.

You sound like a fanboy because you are completely an Avellone fanboy.

Most people who have been paying attention to Avellone's most recent writing have noticed he's become tryhard as fuck.

Not to mention that his writing is edgy for the sake of edginess. Fuckin hell, when I was playing Pillars I just kept hearing Crawling In my Skin over and over again in my head.

Is that directed at me? PoE is, to me, a complete failure in every possible way. Chris Avellone wrote only Durance and Grieving Mother and most of his writing for them has been cut, there is a reason they appear unfinished, it's because they ARE. Why do you think he left Obsidian? I think it's pretty obvious that it's because they didn't use his writing at all. Though that may not be the real reason, I'm just speculating.

well well now I feel a bit concerned by my previous assumption... 1.8m seems far far away with only 8 days to go...

I kinda wanted Mod Support and Dungeon Master Mode and I would've put DM mode after Mod Support. Shapeshifting Mask is kinda "expensive" at 100k after Mod Support and Love & Hate is meh. My bad, Love and Hate is after Mod Support, Shapeshifting Mask seems even less appealing now. I do think we'll reach mod support though and I've yet to back it from PayPal because these few days have been a national holiday, banks don't work and I didn't have enough cash in my debit card.

Why? We need mod support in order to have DM mode. They are both linked together and DM mode can't come before.

DM mode *after* Mod Support, not *before*. I.e. Mod Support first, then DM mode.

Oh, I've read that on the other way around. My brain saw wouldn't have I don't know why.
My bad ^__^

I don't really care anymore since all 1.5M+ strechgoals have been really "meh"... but never-the-less despite their horrid and uninteresting promises I hope Larian makes the 2 million.

Still hoping, that they reach 2.000.000. I want my DM-Mode!

with less than 50h to go let's face it guys, they won't reach 2M... not even sure they ca reach 1.85M
However my 1.8M guess does not seem unreachable :p come on people just a lil' push ^^

They reached 500.000 in less than 12 hours at the start of the campaign, so ~220.000 in 50 hours is definitely not impossible. Unlikely, yes, but I'll definitely keep my fingers crossed.
And besides, we don't know exactly how much was paid directly through Paypal. I definitely hope they will include that amount for determining which stretch goals have been reached...

well that was the start of the campaign most of the devoted players have pledged the first 12 hours ^^
I guess paypal won't bring a lot og money, last time they said something about the paypal amount it was around 10k if I remember right.
I stick to my 1.8M. But I really hope I am wrong !!

The last time I saw any info about PayPal (which was maybe last week or at least a few days ago) it was at around 9500$. I remember that because I was surprised it was so low. I backed it through PayPal because KS doesn't accept my debit card, so I automatically assumed that I wasn't the only one. Well, I wasn't, but I thought we'd pledge much more than 10k. But, like I said, it was a few days/a week ago.

Devin engaged his own reputation saying it was around 20k now - and today saw a big jump in pledges. I'm confident the Mask goal is a sure thing now ( 1M78 now ). GM... Not as much.

But GM mode is the better one! Remember VtM: Redemption's DM mode? It's still going and it was a lot of fun. It had its hiccups and that's why it didn't catch on more, but other than that, it was great.

@Lacrymas
Yeah, that DM mode in Vampire the Masquerade was the first thing I had in mind when I saw that stretch goal!
I never used it though, the goal looks a bit intimidating to me, technically.

I wonder if there's going to be a chance for late backers (so called slacker backers) to support the campaign after the KS is over. (and if yes, if that will have any impact on the stretch goals)

Oh I'm a strong advocate of the GM mode myself !
It is feared it may not be done and impact the quality of the rest of the game, but I really don't think so. I think it may be the one feature to really dwarf them all !
\O/ \O/

yeah that was the info I had. But I am not that confident in a high amount of money through paypal first of all because there are not "major tiers" and then because if people have the choice they pledge through KS not paypal I am not sure that many people are in the same case than Lacrymas...

My bet: 1.95M

With the D:OS Kickstarter, Paypal pledging remained available for another couple weeks. At least so far, nothing more than that has been mentioned for D:OS 2.

shit, 1.823M and 28h to go I was obviously wrong !! nice job Larian !! come on 177k we CAN do it !!

Well, the Shapeshifting Mask stretch goal is definitely in. Maybe if we only make it halfway to the GM mode, that Larian will still be nice enough to at least give us a slimmed down GM mode? Based on what I've seen in the 24 hour live stream, they already have quite a few of the elements that can be used for the GM mode in the current implementation...

That's not how game development works.

Well, the last stretch goal was 1.85M... we're at 1.9 now, so that would be 50,000 for a slimmed down GM mode.

But I have good hopes that we're still going to make it.
According to Jeff (Larian), they currently got around 15K from Paypal, 10K from RPGwatch, and 10K from RPGCodex. So only 65K left until the 2M, and still 14 hours to go. And with that live stream going on, the counter is progressing quite nicely.

So, to use buildings as example again.

If you have 150K to build a building, you can see how you can't just make it "75k for half a building"..., right?

I think we are going to squeak out 2 million, which is great, I'd love a DM mode.

Good example... if you only have 75k, you can't make the building that you wanted. But you can make a smaller building, with less rooms, less features...!

But I think that point is moot... we're at 1,950,000 now, and 35,000 from other sources, so only 15,000 left with still 7 hours to go.

50k here or there is less than a statistical fluctuation in Early Access / DOS:EE sales, the 'real milestones' are spaced 500k apart. If they seriously have their sights set on DM mode, they'll just do it even if 50k short.

The REAL question is if they actually need another ~500k to really make this work in a non-hackneyed way. And they probably do, but that's what enhanced editions are for, haha.

Well, KS page is at $1,966,000 now. So if my calculations/information is correct, with the extra $35,000 added, this means the final stretch goal (Game Master mode) has been reached!!!
(and at the speeds it's currently going, KS may well pass the $2M by itself)

$10k to go on KS page alone... with PayPal funds they should be all set even when taking into account last-minute cancellations and some failed KS payments.

Congratulations

$2M and counting. Congrats to all involved!

2mio$ !!!!

I was wrong and I am glad I was wrong !! well done Larian !!

Same.
Now, let's see, what pessimistic attitude can I adopt...
Ah!
Please do not screw up, or I'll be angry I threw my money at you and will probably do it again. Hu....

I guessed 2.5M it seems, 1 month ago.
I was not that far! Well, still over 2M

I still find this supposedly random number that Kieron picked two weeks ago or something to be weirdly prescient in its accuracy.

Also, I think we should declare 4verse the winner.

Definitely. Back in August, I'm sure almost nobody really believed that 2 million was really possible, but his chart was spot on.
So what did he win? An office date? An invitation to the Larian Studios Release Party?

Psh, I believed 3 million, so I'm sadly dissapointed in all of you!


It's more like the building will lack some walls, and there's a pretty good chance it will collapse on itself since they didn't give proper stutting to the second floor.

If you were an architect, I don't think many people would hire you. You should create the design based on how much money you have, not first create the best possible design you can think of, then look at how much of it you can achieve with the money that you have.
Ofcourse, with only $75,000, the house I could build wouldn't be much more than a shack (unless I lived in Parma, Ohio), but it definitely wouldn't lack walls or collapse.

But as I already said... the point is moot, as the full target for Game Master Mode has been achieved.

Still, many people (me included) are dubious it can be done properly even with the reached goal.

As for the hypothesis:
If you're hired to build a 2 story home for 75K and you see that's not enough money, do you really want to build a shack for the money then. Or just return it and say 'that's not enough money for what you want'... the first definitely gives you angry contractors.

They created the design, they said they needed X money for it. It's not something as easily as just doing "50% GM for 50% money", that's like saying "You'll get 50% plane for 50% money... ps. It wont fly"

The situation is a little bit different. You make a plan for a village, and tell the contractor that it will cost 2M. The final part of that village is a house for 150K, that some people are really looking forward to (let's say some sort of community building). But the contractor can't come up with the 2M and is 75K short. What do you do? Do you tell the contractor that you will then just make the rest of the village and leave out the community building altogether, or do you offer to make the most of that 75K and build a small shack as community building? I believe that in this case, that shack will actually make the contractor happy, not angry. After all, a small community building with less possibilities is better than no community building at all, right?



This part of your reply fails right in that first sentence. When they started the KS campaign, they had a global idea of what they could make, but I sincerely doubt that they had created the technical designs (they didn't even have the GM stretch goal until later in the campaign). Only now that the funding is certain, will they sit down with their designers, discuss how they can do it and come up with an actual technical design plan. If they had less money, then that design plan would just become a lot simpler... but a simple plan with less options is still completely different from "half a plan".

One very simple example: a full Game Master mode could have the option to "create your own maps" (with the supplied editor), while a slimmed down version would only have the option to choose from 10 pre-defined maps... still fully functional, just less flexible for the user, and a lot cheaper to implement.

thx, man, appreciated

that would be awesome