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Place you bets on total that will be raised on KS #568116
28/08/15 01:55 PM
28/08/15 01:55 PM
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deathmachinept Offline OP
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deathmachinept  Offline OP
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My bet is on $1.45mil :P

Last edited by deathmachinept; 28/08/15 02:03 PM.
Re: Place you bets on total that will be raised on KS [Re: deathmachinept] #568117
28/08/15 01:56 PM
28/08/15 01:56 PM
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Posts: 3,706
The Frog & Hounds
vometia Offline

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vometia  Offline

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The Frog & Hounds
23p!

I must admit I've absolutely no idea where it'll end up. I'm stunned that it was funded in just 12 hours.

Can we specify a random currency just to make it more interesting? Preferably including currencies that aren't, well, current. laugh


J'aime le fromage.
Re: Place you bets on total that will be raised on KS [Re: vometia] #568119
28/08/15 02:02 PM
28/08/15 02:02 PM
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deathmachinept Offline OP
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Originally Posted By: Vometia
23p!

I must admit I've absolutely no idea where it'll end up. I'm stunned that it was funded in just 12 hours.

Can we specify a random currency just to make it more interesting? Preferably including currencies that aren't, well, current. laugh


LoL how could we then compared in the end but them on USD then add the conversion to currency you want.

I knew it would be raised in 24h they did a successful KS and really took care of the fanbase really well with good comms. But It's a total guess in how many more new founders they will bring to the KS campaign.

Re: Place you bets on total that will be raised on KS [Re: deathmachinept] #568120
28/08/15 02:04 PM
28/08/15 02:04 PM
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Hassat Hunter Offline

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Based on PoE and Wastelands 2 fundings, combined with D:OS's success minus the decrease of Kickstarter raised funds for games that's been going on for a while...

I estimate a 3 million ending figure.

Re: Place you bets on total that will be raised on KS [Re: deathmachinept] #568121
28/08/15 02:10 PM
28/08/15 02:10 PM
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Quebec, Canada
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norD Offline
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norD  Offline
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Quebec, Canada
I'll bet for 2.5M

Re: Place you bets on total that will be raised on KS [Re: deathmachinept] #568132
28/08/15 02:55 PM
28/08/15 02:55 PM
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4verse Offline

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it MUST be at least 1.2m b/c i WANT that undead race and SHOULD be at least 1.5m b/c i actually want EVERYTHING hehe

actually raised my pledge just to get those undead walking!


"I don't make games to make money, I make money to make games". (Swen Vincke)
Re: Place you bets on total that will be raised on KS [Re: deathmachinept] #568148
28/08/15 06:31 PM
28/08/15 06:31 PM
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deathmachinept Offline OP
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It will be interesting seeing total it will end up raising, D:OS had 19500 backers D:OS II has already ~19500 so you can't say for now how many of those are the previous backers and those who are new backers.

The average pledge is slightly lower, I guess it reflects how you seem to be paying for less rewards per pledge and no boxed games except for the 125$ which is 30$ more expensive that before.

If they released enhanced edition about mid campaign maybe get AJ to do an Angry Review plus the extra buzz from the past successful KS campaign they might go over 2mil but still think 3mil is a bit far fetch.




Last edited by deathmachinept; 28/08/15 06:32 PM.
Re: Place you bets on total that will be raised on KS [Re: deathmachinept] #568149
28/08/15 06:35 PM
28/08/15 06:35 PM
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norD Offline
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Originally Posted By: deathmachinept
If they released enhanced edition about mid campaign maybe get AJ to do an Angry Review plus the extra buzz from the past successful KS campaign they might go over 2mil but still think 3mil is a bit far fetch.

Swen told october for EE.
Campaign will end at the start of october.

Re: Place you bets on total that will be raised on KS [Re: deathmachinept] #568153
28/08/15 07:51 PM
28/08/15 07:51 PM
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Kevinik Offline

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2.5M to 3M I say, If it's more it will be incredible to see.

Re: Place you bets on total that will be raised on KS [Re: deathmachinept] #568160
28/08/15 09:28 PM
28/08/15 09:28 PM
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Haleseen Offline
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I bet 2M. Unless the Chris Avellone stretch goal is at a higher level, and then it will be at that level.

Re: Place you bets on total that will be raised on KS [Re: deathmachinept] #568162
28/08/15 09:42 PM
28/08/15 09:42 PM
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Canada
Raze Offline

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I agree with Kevinik on the guess (2.5-3M), and that more would be better. I was a little conservative hoping the D:OS kickstarter would reach the 800K stretch goal, so I'll be optimistic this time.

Re: Place you bets on total that will be raised on KS [Re: deathmachinept] #568167
28/08/15 10:24 PM
28/08/15 10:24 PM
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Slapstick Offline

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According to Kicktraq it's now trending towards 10 million. LOL laugh Obviously that's not going to happen, but that would be *hilarious*. I'm keeping my fingers crossed, that would just be epic.

Re: Place you bets on total that will be raised on KS [Re: deathmachinept] #568171
28/08/15 10:32 PM
28/08/15 10:32 PM
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Posts: 565
somewhere over the rainbow
Chaotica Offline

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somewhere over the rainbow
that would be kickass to hit the Hall of the Echoes stretch goal but that is really a shitload of money...
let's be optimistic, I bet on 1.8M


"-Oh that's fullmoon, cuttie cuttie sheep
-baaaaaaOOOOORGH"
***Sprotch***

Weresheeps will rule the world (At least one night every 29 days)
Re: Place you bets on total that will be raised on KS [Re: deathmachinept] #568205
29/08/15 09:07 AM
29/08/15 09:07 AM
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4verse Offline

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Did some calculations grin

Took some (IMO) comparable projects and tried to forecast DOS2 (actually I derive a pattern based on moving averages of past kickstarters (partly extrapolated due to different durations) and used polynomial trend model on DOS2). I did this in about 1 hour, so statistically not very sophisticated, but lets see, if I will be right hehe



edit: redone - better data/adjusted

Last edited by 4verse; 29/08/15 08:42 PM.

"I don't make games to make money, I make money to make games". (Swen Vincke)
Re: Place you bets on total that will be raised on KS [Re: deathmachinept] #568212
29/08/15 04:22 PM
29/08/15 04:22 PM
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Horrorscope Offline
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I dunno, 2 mil? But I hope their swimming in it when EE is released for the consoles.

Re: Place you bets on total that will be raised on KS [Re: Horrorscope] #568213
29/08/15 04:36 PM
29/08/15 04:36 PM
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4verse Offline

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4verse  Offline

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Originally Posted By: Horrorscope
I dunno, 2 mil? But I hope their swimming in it when EE is released for the consoles.


remember, its a forecast. id est: "better guessing". so, if DOS2 kickstarter resembles the pattern of the average of some other kickstarter there is some likeness that we will see 2mill at the end. nothing more nothing less.


"I don't make games to make money, I make money to make games". (Swen Vincke)
Re: Place you bets on total that will be raised on KS [Re: deathmachinept] #568222
29/08/15 08:20 PM
29/08/15 08:20 PM
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Cattletech Offline

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I'm guessing 1.9M.

Also relying on past game kickstarters can be misleading because repeat kickstarters can be more front-loaded - e.g. see Bard's Tale IV which made 1M in day 3 but ended up with 1.5M. I'd guess all the gamers who are interested in backing on Kickstarters tend to already know about it and back on the first week, and relatively little happens later on (at least compared to previous years when it was new). I'd love to be wrong though because I like all the stretch-goals so far!

Re: Place you bets on total that will be raised on KS [Re: deathmachinept] #568234
29/08/15 11:42 PM
29/08/15 11:42 PM
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Posts: 398
eRe4s3r Offline

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The current low in progression is probably because a lack of actual updates regarding some raised questions that keep people who care about those questions from backing D:OS 2... (SP, Paypal and Chris Avellone)

I would peg this KS currently even lower, at about 1.7m

It's in Larians hands...

Re: Place you bets on total that will be raised on KS [Re: deathmachinept] #568235
29/08/15 11:49 PM
29/08/15 11:49 PM
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Fyrestorme Offline

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1.5 mil

Re: Place you bets on total that will be raised on KS [Re: deathmachinept] #568253
30/08/15 02:48 AM
30/08/15 02:48 AM
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4verse Offline

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The steep drop I expected - fits my (or rather multiple other kickstarter's) pattern quite well. So, in my terms still on track hehe

Last edited by 4verse; 01/09/15 12:59 PM.

"I don't make games to make money, I make money to make games". (Swen Vincke)
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