In order of likelyhood.

1. Humans
2. Elves
3. Dwarves
4. Halflings
5. Half Elves
(Okay Solasta will have these races, that is the superbase minimum, so I expect BG will at minimum have all PHB races and subraces).
6. Gnomes
7. Half Orcs
8. Tieflings
9. Dragonborn
(These are all extremely likely to be in IMHO, I will be shock if any PHB race is left out given their much larger budget then Solasta)
10. Gith (given the Mind Flayers, Gith seems very likely)
11. Aasimar (one of the other major Planetouched races and nearly a core race for FR)
12. Genasi (the last of the major Planetouched races, and a major FR race, especially since 4e).
13. Goliaths (because I suspect a fameous critical role Goliath character will make an appearance)
14. Goblins (they have in reprinted in no less then 3 5e books so far as a playable race, VGTM, GMGtR, and ERftLW, WotCis really pushing them in 5e)
15. Lizardfolk/Tortles (mentioned in BG: DiA as living in BG, plus Larian like Lizard people, and I decided Tortles as just as likely)
(From 10 to 15 have a good shot at being in))
16. Hobgoblins (The Chill is near by)
17. Bugbears (if Goblins and Hobgoblins are in, Bugbears might not be far behind)
18. Yaun Ti Pureblood (they appeared in a video game before as a playable race, NWN2 Storm of Zehir)
19. Firbolgs (they live in the high forest)
20. Tabaxi (because people love cats)
21. Tritons (because they are cool, I personally like them more then many more likely to be in races, but I am doubtful they make it in outside of a expansion)
22. Kobolds
(From 16 to 22 have a fair shot at getting in, but this realy pushing it, I really doubt that 23 to 29 will be in)
23. Kenku (horrible mechanics, but a cool rave fluff wise).
24. Orcs (again, not great mechanics)
25. Aacrokra (flying from first level, very unlikely)
26. Shifters (4e added them to FR in a major way)
27. Loxodons (called Loxo in FR)
28. Minotaurs
28. Centaurs (four legs might cause some issues)
29. Changelings, Locathoth, Warforged, Kalahtar, Veldkyn, (I would be extremely shocked if any of these make it in).

i wouldnt relay be holding my breath about anyhting that isnt in BG 1 and 2.
This is larian so we might get soem more variety, but i think anyhitng not in PHB is a definitive out.
You might have a point about Goliath, i mostly play 4E so i forgot that Goliaths arent a core race (which thy also werent in 4E but they got added with th esame book as Half orcs were so they might aswell be)
as for Goblins, goblins are, funly enaugh, not very iconic in DnD, they are in many other fantasy settigns such as Warcraft or the DnD spinoff pathfinder, but in DnD Goblins generaly are always a bit underwhelming, with the spot they take in other settings usualyl beeing reserved for Kobolds.
Lizardfolk are probably gonna be there, but im expecting them to work like they did in NWN2, theyll likeley have a different skeleton from the player races, they are a classic low level enemy so theyll use thos emodels.

Yuan ti pureblood are a player race but also regarded to be vastly overpowered and while they were in Storm of Zehir, they are the least "Player friendly" of the races , since their morality is realy weird to non existant.

Of all the non PHB races i can maybe see Goliaths and Firbolg (the latter because they appear to be oddly popular) beeing in.
Of the more monsterous races i think Lizardfolk and Kobolds have the biggest shot, Lizardfolk because they and dragonborn are essentialy itnerchangeable for most people and the latter have non godawful stats, Kobolds because they, again, are oddly popular with furries.

I wouldnt count on Gith, They are connected to mindflayers but i personally think Gith are a poor choice for low level campaigns.
If your character starts at level 1 and its not planescape or spelljammer, chacnes are youre not playing a gith

as for dragonborn: ive like to point out that its been two editions since these guys were made a core race an so far theyve never appeared in a DnD based vidoe game at release (not counting the facebook one) and the only two games that had them at all were the MMOs that added em years later with a hefty price tag

I absoluteley expect tieflings to be in, theyve been a staple ever since NWN1 and i wouldnt be surprised abotu Drow since they are a core race now and a staple of edgelords in almost every campaign featuring edgelrods

For the other playable races:
Asimar have a good chance of being playable since they require no work
Genasi: also throw away race

The race I want to see:
Yaun Ti Pureblood: I know it's unrealistic but I love playing them in D&D, they are even relatively easy to implement and we know they aren't rare along the Sword Coast.

Races that must be purged and any trace of them should be removed from books:
Gnomes: they are the single most annoying thing about DND, burn them all! No one likes them no one plays them there is no reason for them to be in the game or in DND at all.
Dragonborn: Dragons without horns or a tail are a joke! FIX THIS ASAP!

It'd be nice to see a wide variety of races for sure. There's some considerations and limitations to take into account though. For each playable race, you need a whole new set of armor designs (not only per race, but also by class fantasy design), rigging, 3d-models, etc. Producing those costs money, and time. So I feel like it's safe to expect strong chances for some of the traditional races, but anything beyond that is probably only really plausible if they fit the game's story. As a completely hypothetical example, if there's no Lizardfolk in the campaign as NPCs, I think it's a low to zero chance that'll be a playable race. Though extending the amount of races can possibly be cheaply increased somewhat if you have two similar races that shares a similar enough body type to share the same body rig and where only their heads would need replacements.

There's one thing I know for sure: If modding is supported, Mindflayer will be a playable race one way or another 8)

actually i think lizardfolk as enemy NPCs lowers their chance of beeing a PC race if other DnD based games are an indication.
If a creature has an established model that doesnt fit the armor designs for the generic races it wont be made playable outside of mods.

Lizardfolk Pc makes no sense every townguard would immidiately attack you and you would certainly have no chance to get into Baldurs Gate itself.

You really need to buy Baldur's Gate: Descent into Avernus if only for the Baldur's Gate Gazette inside. It straight up mentions Lizardfolk are living in Baldur's Gate, and in Volo's Guide to Monsters Lizardfolk aren't concidered a monster race, unlike Gobliniods, Orcs, Yaun Ti Pure Blood, Kobolds which while playable are concidered monster races. Most Lizardfolk society is on its own neutral and not evil. In fact as long as one is not disruptive, monster races and fiend worshipping cults are tolerated, especially in the Outer districts (Baldur's Gate is very Lawful Neutral, almost leaning towards Lawful Evil behind closed doors). Heck even the Drow operate openly in cities along the Swordcoast. Both the Spellplague, the Sundering, and other events shook society enough that xenophobia in most places is less stabby and more social, outside of really extreme cases.

Plus doing deals with various tribes is not unheard of. Until rescently they even traded with the Orc nation of Many Arrows.

Interesting, but still Lizardfolk are still strange so Larian would be forced to rewrite large portions of dialogue because of their reptile nature, which would still be too much work for such an unpopular race.

In the end, I prefer fewer races but I want to consequences for choosing the race instead of having 20 race that only affect stats and visuals.

I would guess personally all classic races, i.e. Human, Elf, Half-Elf, Dwarf, Halfling and Gnome, as well as their subraces. Plus Half-orc, Tiefling/Aasimar, Genasi. And maybe Dragonborn and Goliath at later stage (potentially an expansion) if we are lucky.

Anything beyond that really exceeds what is needed for a DnD CRPG in my opinion. Also, what is the point of having many playable races, if NPCs don't regard you any different than they would a human? Personally that sort of thing I find really hacky. I love it when you actually get a different reactions and experiences from NPCs and the story simply by your choice of either race, class or attributes. That sort attention to detail in a game does kind help give you the illusion that you are participating in your own story, which is definitely a major plus in a CRPG.

Since Swen said they took the PHB and converted it to the Computer Game. I expect the 9 Races and their subclass in the PHB to be in the Game. As well as the 12 classes and subclasses that are in the PHB. Anything else is a bonus.

>Every town guard would immediatly attack you
oh you are one of THOSE DMs...


Id like to point out that there is an entire book series about a protagonist from a race thats literaly Chaotic evil, unlike lizardmen who are mostly neutral.

>I prefer fewer races with more impact
well, the problem here is were talking about DND.
So we gotta ahve at least 6 races who have no impact whatsoever before we can start getting to those races that would even have an impact, and then you get to "Half Orc" in which the consequence is "People think youre a buffoon and a literal bastard"

i think making races matter worked pretty well in divinity, but in divinity that was part of the point. In DnD the large majority of player races are Humans with a different hat. Out of the PHB races the only ones that realy stick out in terms of behaviour are the Drow and in FR the Dragonborn due to beeing ahteists

Dragonborn will definitely be in it right away, it's a core PHB race.

And has no one been paying attention to what Sven has been saying in interviews, things like race and class will matter, along with many, many other things. I mean I don't expect every interaction to invovle their race and class, but enough that they will matter.

It's a little more complicated then that. Dragonborn aren't athiests usually, it's more they are very distrustful of outside, authority figures, including Gods, and they don't like being servile to anyone, not even a God, so a God has to earm their trust before being excepted and treat the Dragonborn with respect. Enlil was willing to do this. I think Bahumet aka Marduk and Torm might be willing too to a lesser degree.

Tieflings are different too, partly because of discrimination.

This is exactly what Larian is looking for, and Larian likes Lizard races, they have one in Divine Divinity. Also Lizardfolk are mentioned right in the Baldur's Gate Gazette in BG: DiA which Larian Studios helped write with WotC. I don't think that is, an accident.

There are Cyclopses in Baldur's Gate too and I think we can all agree that they won't be playable either...
The Lizardfolk are just boring tribals you cannot compare them with the Lizards and their ancient Empire making them a playable race when they are already Dragonborn(Which are also boring compared to the Lizards) makes no sense. Although they will probably be there as NCPs or generic mobs.

Lizardfolk aren't just boring tribals, they have a complex history in the Forgotten Realms going all the way back to the creator races and a alien mind set.

I have no idea what you see in them, they have a long and proud history of being low-level trash mobs since 1st edition and more recently as hapless tribals threatened by more intelligent humanoids. Out of the Sarrukh related races, it's always been the Yuan-ti which got the most attention.
I would be surprised if we don't meet them both in BG3(hopefully we don't have to fight them like in NWN which I quit because of the railroading).
Though I can say with absolute certainty that Kobolds have a higher chance of becoming a PC race in the future than lizardfolk.

Let's break down the races into basic skeletons/body types.

Human-like Body: Human, Aasimar, Tiefling, Genasai, Tritons, Yuan Ti Pureblood, Gith, Hobgoblin, Half Orc, Half Elf.

Dwarf body: Dwarves: Shield, Gold, Duergar

Elf Body: High Elf, Wild Elf, Drow, Sea Elf, Eladarin, Shadar Kai

Halfling Body: Stout, Lightfoot, Ghostwise, Goblins

Gnome Body: Deep Gnomes, Forest Gnomes, Rock Gnomes

Dragonborn Body: Dragonborn

Big Guys Body: Firbolg, Goliath, Bugbear, Orcs

Tabaxi Body: Tabaxi

Kenku Body: Kenku

Tortle Body: Tortles

Kobold body: Kobolds

Lizardfolk Body: Lizardfolk

That is 12 basic skeletons/Body types to do 3D models with. Heads might be different on some of these.

DND lizardfolk indeed are very very boring, they are probably among the most boring iteraiton of that fantasy race in any setting i can think of.
they literaly worship the god of "not actually progressing and beeing bareley more than animals"
DnD lizards are only cool in Eberron.

However, FR has the Asabi who are pretty cool and basically the same thing.
Still nothing close to the Divinity Lizards who harken back to the days of the Iksar or Howards Serpent people

Also Dragonborn have the same body type as dwarves so you probably should group them together

Spelljammer has cool Lizardfolk, they send their eggs on Spelljammers to orbit suns because it makes their young smarter.

Anyways I could see some cool plotlines they could do with Lizardfolk in BG3, something tieing in with other scalyfolk races.

idk.
at this point i think dragonborn just play out the trope better and can be used for chraacters that arent rangers and druids

Lizardfolk can be used for any class Dragonborn can be.

No matter which races end up making it in the game, I hope the choice will actually matter. Thinking back to NWN2 for example, if you played a drow you'd get exactly one (1) line of dialogue where an NPC would question why you are around. It can be an important factor for the immersion and the replayability of the game to make sure every race gets the appropriate writing attached to it.

So I believe it would probably better to go for a "less is more" approach when it comes to the number of playable races. Though I of course hope for there being proper subraces, but I wouldn't be surprised if they have to skip out on those.

Well just to compare, the just announced CRPG Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous from Owlcat makers of Pathfinder: Kilngmaker will have, assuming nothing gets cut from PF:KM at least 17 classes with at least 4 archetypes each, a few Prestige classes as well, 6 Mythic Paths including Lich, Celestial Angel, and Trickester, and Elves, Humans, Halflings, Dwarves, Half Elves, Half Orcs, Aasimar (7 subraces), Tieflings (10 subraces), and a new race which has not been identified yet, and they have promised race will matter.

And they are doing it on a much, much smaller budget then BG 3 (over 200 internal staff and 100 external staff for BG3, hundreds of staff more Owlcat has)


So that gives you an idea of Baldur's Gate's 3 has to compete with.

yeah but consider that pathfinder races are all recoloured humans, 10 tieflign subraces dont realy matter if they all look like humans with horns glued to their forehead adn get different statboni.
Much the same is true for classes.
Pathfidner is esssentialy 3.5 , a lot of classes share the same spells, implementing a new class is a matter of inserting values into a spreadsheet half the time and balancign isnt an issue when you 1:1 copy an already existing rulebook

I am not sure what Owlcat have to do with this, but if we are gonna compare companies, Bioware's Dragon Age has overall only four playable races throughout the series and they presumably have a bigger budget and workforce than all the other companies in the genre combined. Just throwing some arbitrary numbers around ain't constructive here. Resources can be used in very different ways.

My point is that I want quality over quantity. If that means cutting some (sub) races from the roster, then so be it.

dunno, i know people here praise dragon age for their backgrounds.
but id rather have that many human backgrounds than having elves and dwarves.

personally recoloured humans are just not appealing to me, and id rather have a quantity of chocies so theres some actually good ones in there, and if were going quality over quantity then please go human only.

In Dragon Age, your race matters more than in any other RPG I have played: Different Dialogue, different quest solutions, drastically different endings.
Even the human race feels like a decision and actually gets unique content. Heck, even your sex changes a lot of dialogue and offers unique quest solutions
It's one of the main reasons why it's my favourite fantasy CRPG.

Some of the "race relations" stuff in DA is quite interesting, especially comparing the attitudes of the dalisn and the city elves; and then you have Sera who absolutely rails against anything too "elfy" and even warns you off commenting about her pointy ears.

Most universes featuring humans, elves, dwarves etc involve some friction but it's usually just a very basic "elves are haughty and dwarves have Small Man Syndrome", but I felt DA was a bit more nuanced than most.

@Hawke & @vometia: Exactly. They made sure not to spread their butter to thin and instead added multiple options for other defining factors besides race. I don't expect BG3 to be on that level (because I assume a smaller budget), but I'd prefer for things to go that route instead of being able to play a gorram Dragonborn who gets treated like a human by the NPCs.

i wouldnt like that tbh.
Woulda ctually be a turnoff for me.
If they can add that depth to the races? nice.
if it forces me to live with the lamest of the races? Nope, id rather not.

5e isn't that different then 3.5 when it comes to class common ground. Many spells shared between classes. A few shared features like Channel Divinity.

I looked for hard numbers on developers for any of the Dragon Age games and came up empty, so I'm not prepared to assume that they had a larger workforce then Larian Studios until I get hard evidence of that, I need actual numbers.

And depth or number of races isn't an either or situation, that is false assumption you are making.

Do you know the budget for both games? If you don't why assume that?

About 200 people worked on DAO

So less then Larian's 300+.

And Larian now self publishes, I've heard that allows the makers of the Witcher 3 to create AAA games for a lot less then other AAA developers.

No Larian has 200 +100 working externally also involved with the game.

200+ internal and 100 external folks working on the game equals 300 people.

Then Dragon Age had a lot more since externals are usually not counted. This discussion is pointless since we have no idea who those 100 people are and how involved they are in the development. Of course, Larian and Bioware are completely different companies with very different structures so comparing them is pointless.

I didn't start the comparison to Dragon Age. I compared it to the up coming Wrath of the Righteous, which I felt makes more system, both are D&D games, unlike Dragon Age.

Comparing anything with anything doesn't really make sense at all tbh. For multiple reasons.

- BG3 doesn't exist yet. There's no material to be used in comparison.
- DAO is pretty old by now, and we'd rather best hope they can't be compared, because technology and computing capacity has improved greatly since then.
- Similar to the previous point, comparing to other upcoming games is just as futile, as I'd think we wouldn't want future games to be identical to one another. Might as well just cancel all of them but one to save a lot of money and human workhours then.

Basically, we'd rather hope BG3 is different than DAO, Wrath of the Righteous, or even BG1/2, otherwise it'd be outdated, a copy-cat or just rehashing old for old's sake. Might as well be playing the old games instead then.

What @The Composer said. Feels like the rest of y'all are not really understanding what I've been trying to say. *shrug*

Yeah I vote this game, game of the Century if they added Centaurs as a playable race in Baldur’s gate 3.

Mind you... this hasn't stopped the makers of Fifa...

Makers will make as long as players will buy ...
I mean look how many times Skyrim was released.