Larian Studios Forums Baldur's Gate III Baldur's Gate III - Technical & Gameplay Problems Dice roll randomizer

you cant tell me the dice roll in this game are random. ive rolled 20 crit failure / Crit misses today and only one nature 20. if you know anything about probability you would know how astronomically low they odds of that happening are. Please add a dice roll tracker so we can see what the real odds are because there no chance the dice are truly random.

Have you tried turning off Karmic Dice from the gameplay options menu?

As far as I know, that enables true dice roll randomization and it’s the only way I’ve been playing the game from the beginning.

I've tried both on and off and my average dice roll to best of my tracking is well below a 10. THe ones i love the most and when you have a 95% chance to hit a goblin and miss 7 straight attacks. seriously i cant stress enough how horrendous the dice in this game are for me

To be fair, I’ve had this sort of bad luck with the dice rolls myself, which is why I always aim to have Advantage for whatever I am doing.

That way at least I am rolling two dice at the same time, but granted I still had to reload previous saves because a fight got out of hand here and there.

This means that statistically it is completely randomized. Expecting an even distribution of rolls is a human fallacy, and has nothing to do with actual statistical probability. Running 11 ones in a row is fully within normal behavior for a completely RNG based dice for example. The reason is simlpe; every roll is counted on its own, meaning the 11th time you roll the dice it is still 5% chance for a "1". The odds doesn't decrease for every roll (unless you have the Karma dice on).

In fact, a good sign that a dice actually is correctly implemented is if you do not get an even spread at all unless you count over 2000 rolls or so.

dude im sorry but there is nothing normal bout rolling 11 ones in a row. do you understand the statistical probability of rolling 11 1's in a row? that 1 - .0000000000000005. thats essentially 1 in 100 trillion chance. if you think thats normal you clearly dont understand odds. I frequently roll 1's at a rate probably triple that of statistics and long odd should allow. which means there is a weighted number to dice and they are not anywhere near true odds.

honestly just reading your entire statement lets me know that you dont understand long odds at all. I'll explain: Long odds states that even though every roll is an individual chance to roll any give number, over the course of time all numbers will statistically even out to the percentages over time. so on a D20 every number has a 5% chance to roll. which means short term you will have the chance to roll streaks. however long odds say no matter how long the streaks are on the short term in the long run every number will eventually run out to have come up 5% of the time.

in the 500 or so hours i have on the game i can guarantee the number of 20's I've rolled if FAR FAR fewer then the number of 1's. there has to be a weighed system in place and I would really like it removed.

They are not weighted, it is random. You expecting a more even spread IS a fallacy the human mind creates. Personally I FEEL I have had far more 20s than 1s.

As for the rest. Every individual roll has 5% of producing a 1, meaning you have just as much chance on your 11th as your 1st to produce a 1. One in one trillion chance for that specific series of eleven numbers? It is exactly the same chance as any other series of numbers, and that is my point.
You have the same chance to roll 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 *. Or 11, 11, 2, 7, 20, 19, 1, 8, 5, 3, 14 as you have rolling 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1. Any series of numbers have exactly the same chance as any other series of numbers to come up. I admit we are talking about two slightly different things, but it doesn't make my statement wrong.

And again, with an actual accurately RNG dice, you cannot start to fairly detect statistical abnormalities until at the very minimum 1000 rolls, preferably much more rolls than that. But sure if you want to do that and keep the score, that's up to you.

* I once had a discussion with a grocery store clerk because she laughed when she saw the numbers I had put down on my lotto ticket was 1-7, saying "that will never happen". I never managed to make her understand that the series 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 has much chance to be randomly falling out of the ball machine on TV as any other chosen series of numbers.