Larian Studios Forums Divinity - Original Sin Divinity - Original Sin - General Here is why I say archery is incorrect

I'm so sick and tired of people misusing things to the point they wind up argue about something they don't really understand and cannot see the problem. So I came up with a way to explain this so no one can argue with it any more.

After reading this people will see why Archery is incorrectly programmed into this game so here you go:


So taking everything, since Dexterity increases chance to hit with dexterity based items, a character with an 11 dexterity, is supposed to show a 100% chance to hit an enemy that is right next to that character on a map no matter what.

As I said Archery is incorrectly programmed in this game and I just proved it. And people need to quit arguing with me telling me I'm wrong.

Just no.

You're trolling, nobody is this dumb. I'll bite anyhow.



Let's break this down first:

Guessing the correct pocket = getting the dollar

In your own words: "Now just because you have a 1 and 4 chance of guessing the correct pocket"

1 in 4 = 25%.

So to use your own words: "Now just because you have a 25% chance of guessing the correct pocket (and getting the dollar)"

to change it again, still using your own logic and words: "Now just because you have a 25% chance of getting the dollar"

Using your own words and statements you're saying:

"Now just because you have a 25% chance of getting the dollar"
Following with:
"Guessing the right or wrong pocket isn't even relevant when it comes to 100% chance of getting the dollar"


You're correct in saying that the dollar is 100% in one of your pockets. The guesser 100% has a chance to guess which pocket the dollar is in, BUT the guesser only has a 25% chance of guessing correctly and getting the dollar.

Wrong Burgee
Once the dollar is placed into a pocket the guesser has a 100% chance to get the dollar 25% of the time. Since the dollar is present at all times, there is a 100% chance for the guesser to get the dollar no matter what pocket they guess.

Saying the guesser only has a 25% chance to get the dollar that is present 100% of the time, is saying that the dollar is only presently on me 25% of the time.

What you're failing to understand is that guessing right or wrong does not change the dollar being present.

What you're failing to understand is mathematical logic.

We're assuming the guesser only gets one guess. I agree that the guesser has a 100% chance to get the dollar 25% of the time, as weird as your wording on that is.

You could paraphrase that to make more sense: The guesser definitely has a 25% chance to get the dollar that is 100% in one of the 4 pockets.

In order to have a 100% chance to get the dollar, the guesser would have to have 4 guesses with a 25% chance per guess, assuming the guesser never guesses the same pocket twice.



If the dollar is in your front right pocket, and guesser guesses that the dollar is in your front left pocket, the guesser will never get the dollar. That is why your logic is wrong.

What I'm saying is 100% correct and factual, you just don't get it.

If I have a dollar in one of my pockets then that makes a 100% chance to get the dollar no matter what someone decides to do.

If someone does not want to guess, there is still a 100% chance to get the dollar simply because it's present.

If someone guesses, there is still a 100% chance to get the dollar simply because it's present.

If someone guesses the wrong pocket, there is still a 100% chance to get the dollar simply because it's present.



That's how it works so I am absolutely correct on this.

You're just eliminating the chance factor in a guess from your whole argument. "The dollar is there, no matter what pocket you guess you'll get it, even if you guess the wrong pocket".

You're going to have a tough life if that's your capacity for logic.

I'm finished here.

I just explained how it works and you seem to refuse to accept it.

Where did you and are you getting the idea that 100% only applies to someone guessing correctly.

If something is present it's 100% there and has a 100% probability of being pulled every time with every guess. To say something is only 100% present after it's pulled makes you sound like a moron.

If I put a dollar in my pocket, it doesn't matter whether someone guesses right or wrong or doesn't guess at all, BECAUSE THE DAMN DOLLAR IS PRESENT, I still can, and they still can 100% pull out that dollar. Every time someone guesses, they have a 100% chance to pull out that dollar SIMPLY BECAUSE THE DOLLAR IS PRESENT.

Adding an elimination DOES NOT FUCKING REMOVE A 100% chance of actually being able to pull the damn dollar out you frigging meatstick.

The secret is to just up your DEX and PER. If you don't get the dollar on the first guess, you can just hit him (crit him in the mouth) and take the dollar anyway

If someone can only get the dollar if they guess which pocket it is in, then they only have a 25% chance to get it (with one guess). The fact that the dollar exists in one of the pockets means they can get it (non-zero chance), not that they are guaranteed to (100% chance). The term chance is not Boolean; it isn't a case of existing or not / true or false.

On the other hand, you have a 100% chance of taking it out of your pocket.

Chance to hit does not mean 'is it possible to hit?', it means the calculated chance of hitting something, based on stats, level, etc, and possibly modified by the target's chance to block or saving throws, etc.

No game that uses chance to hit has it only at 0% or 100%. That would be essentially useless information, better conveyed by a 'blocked' or 'out of range' message if it is impossible to target an opponent. If it is possible to hit something, it is much better to indicate the actual chance of that, rather than say there is some non-zero chance of a successful hit.

How useful would a weather forecast be if it said the chance of sunshine was 100% because it could be sunny, and the chance of rain was 100% because it could rain?

Since Raze also replied to this thread, here are also my 2 cents to it (although I do not really want to fuel the discussion)

If you take into account quantum mechanics, you can't even be 100% sure that the dollar is in your pocket even if you put it there...

I registered just so I could post to this crazy discussion.

First, the OP seems to be arguing semantics on the word "chance". Coincidentally, a company by the name of Kabaam also uses the word "chance" with equal misrepresentation in their mobile game "Hobbit KOM". They advertise paid items as "a 100% chance to win X Y and Z items". What they mean is that they "guarantee you a chance to win something" not "they guarantee you win X Y and Z".

Here what the OP seems to be saying is that the word "Chance" implies a "chance at a probability" rather than the probability itself. In that he is completely incorrect. Chance and probability associated with a number are synonyms. From the Miriam Webster dictionary:
Probability =- the chance that something will happen
Chance - the possibility that something will happen

If you put $1 in 4 pockets, people will have a 25% chance, or a 25% probability, or a 25% possibility to identify the correct pocket. The use of Probability or Chance (or possibility) is interchangeable.

You could also incorrectly state that they will have a 100% chance to guess which pocket the dollar is in. The incorrect logical jump with that statement is that there is a 100% chance at a 25% probability. The first use of 100% in this sentence is redundant. There is no need to state that, since the key to the probability math is the 25%.

With regard to the OP and archery specifically, a 100% chance to hit is not implying that you have a 100% chance at a xx% probability. It is stating the probability/chance/possibility. The argument is specifically about the semantics of the word 田hance and the use in a sentence.

Also, by the rude nature of his response to patient members of the community, he is either a troll himself someone that really needs to have a cup of herbal tea and relax a little

I thought this is what he was arguing. I even brought it up in one of my posts:



It's not what he's saying according to him. Then he goes on to pretty much agree that IS what he's saying in this roundabout way:



We all know what he's trying to say, but he's saying it in such a wrong way and he's so confused that he ends up disagreeing with us telling us we don't get it.

I think there is a language or literacy barrier causing the confusion, I can't tell which. Or maybe he's just a great troll.

He's a troll, but he's not great. He's spouting too much nonsense and vitriol too fast, that's not subtle at all. And even when I switch and say nonsense myself, he keeps using the same trick. He's a one-trick troll =/

Funny thing is when I didn't immediately respond to one of his posts in this thread yesterday he decided it would be a good idea to PM it to me, just in case I missed it.

This post has shown me one of two things:

1. Archery is like duh broken in D:OS.
2. That there is a dollar bill in 4 pockets, I have to choose one of 4, I'm most likely getting a dollar, but there are still subatomic chance that may not happen.