The target number indicates the number you actually need on the die after bonuses.
But, in your defense, I do question the stability of the D20 RNG being used. The successes and failures sure seem to be plot driven as opposed to completely random.
And, don't get me started on the hit probability numbers.
I've found the d20 rolls to be...relatively random. I've had situations where I've reloaded, and had to do a die roll over, and went from success to fail and back again. I think the die rolls are a bit suspicious now and again, but overall, they seem random enough. The thing I've found interesting is the lack of nat 20's I've rolled vs. the number of nat 1's, but in combat and otherwise.
