Yep. Same thing happened to me. As a temporary workaround, make sure you save right before you enter the house to talk to the guard. Before entering have one of your casters cast guidance on your main character. You'll at least get a d4 bonus to your checks. You may have to save scum a bit to get through both checks successfully.
Also be on the lookout that the door leading down to the actual hideout(by the waypoint) is acting really buggy and trying to use it often just keeps sending you back to the cellar over and over again. just keep trying to enter, and sooner or later you'll make it down to the hideout. Once there you activate the waypoint so you wont have to go through that mess again.
This was all working fine pre patch. Dont what they did to bugger it all up.
