Filecheck:
"File D:\Program Files\Divine Divinity\Run\keylist.txt does NOT match"
As expected, since you would have defined potion/weapon hotkeys.
"Directory D:\Program Files\Divine Divinity\Run\main\startup.v2 does NOT match."
I don't think that is the problem. This folder stores default files that are used when starting a new game or when entering new areas (when files get added to the save game folder). Even with the shroud.x* files being modified, I would not expect that to make a difference on startup.
After a clean install, make a copy of the startup.v2 folder. After playing, saving and quitting Divinity, replace the folder with the backup copy. If the problem is the modified shroud files, that should let the game start without crashing.
"* If you install the game, play if for a few minutes, quit without saving. You can load the game again and start a new game. So yes you can do this.* It does not freeze."
Then the problem is caused by saving (or possibly by length of time playing).
After saving and quitting Divinity, try searching for all files created after the last install time. Perhaps the first save tigers some file/folder creation, which is not being done properly?
If you have Windows XP, did you install the patch from an account with administrative privileges, and play from an account with full read/write access?
If you make a copy of the Divinity folder after a clean install, you can replace your working location rather than re-install from the CDs again. Assuming you have the extra space, that may be a little faster (or at least avoid the CD swapping).