Well according to my course in Software engineering.
Rational unified process: Is an cycle that when completed gives a new version(testing,alpha, bèta.. )
one cycle consists of 4 stages
the inception phase (research, financial, risk's, scope, (10-20% of the use case)) elaboration phase (mile wide inch deep design, researching and solving the technical risks, 80% of the use case diagram completed) this gives you an idea if the goals are feasible construction fase (construction and integration of the project) transition phase (phase where they see if they have reached theire goals and get feedback)
(I refer you to pm me or the internet for more information about these phases)
In a long and complicated project the time frame is as followed:
5-20% of the time in the inception phase 24-33% of the time in the elboration fase 60-40% of the time in the construction fase 8-7% of the time in the transition phase
Now since they have had a test level we can assume they completed this cycle 1 or 2 times. I think they are now in the 3rd cycle at elboration (HDR lighning) or construction.
So if we take in account that they still have 3-4 cycles to go it could take a while (altough the last cycles are the fastest). My guess is that they are at 60% (that would mean release Q3-Q4 2006).
that is if they are useing the RUP model, thay also could be using Prototyping (highly unlikely in such a big project) or extreme programming. Well there ar many models they could uses.
But I have always liked the phrase
It's done when it is done
Not in the mood for cheese? That excuse has more holes than a slice this fine Gorgombert!