The skill in designing an open world correctly is to put in devices so it is not really an open world?
I had no problem figuring out that something was up with the new duke or that entering the castle was a main plot quest that should be left for awhile.
Do you really need a blatant physical block to prevent you from going places you shouldn't go? At some point in a series of quests, if you have to avoid combat and opponents keep getting higher and higher levels, don't you think you should be able to figure out that maybe you've gotten ahead of yourself, and that instead of jumping into the next quest in the series, you should probably go back and do things you skipped over?