However, there are some days after dec 14th, when the probability of alpha being released is certainly equal to zero (dec 24 - dec 26 and dec 31)... ^^ So, if we also assume that alpha will not be released on Saturday or Sunday, we have 6 days (including today) before dec 14 and 7 days after dec 14, when the probability of getting the alpha is not zero. So, altogether (under the assumption of a uniform probability distribution), the probability of the alpha release is 6/13 before dec 14 and 7/13 after this date.^^
Of course, there might be other factors so that the assumption of a uniform distribution might not apply^^...
Last edited by Elwyn; 06/12/13 05:53 PM.
