Well, I've never researched video game piracy so I don't know much about it, beyond what I've picked up here and there. Piracy in general does seem to be a very complex issue, with a lack of hard data and many unknowns regarding its motivations and effects. It's a topic that elicits a lot of speculation, that's for sure.
What are the demographics of pirates who like RPGs? How many pirated copies of D:OS will be played anyway and how many of these will translate into purchases? Will these pirates criticise or praise the game more?
I really have no idea.
You make an interesting point Arsene, though I'd suggest that this concern is an extension of the concern regarding gamers' nous of development in general, rather than piracy specifically. I'm not sure that pirates will be less capable of understanding the process of development than kickstarter backers, and it should be pretty hard to miss that you're playing an alpha. Granted, within the set of backers there will be a subset of the most engaged fans (who are following development closely/are the most knowledgeable from a laypersons' perspective). Yet it seems to me that you get a fair amount of griping, misinterpretation and so forth anyway if you release an alpa/beta to a broad audience (if the response to Wasteland2 or various early access games on Steam is anything to go by), amidst all the understanding and valuable feedback. And Larian has released it to ALL their backers...
So I think one might as well ask whether backers can be trusted to appreciate the nature and nuances of an unfinished game. I'd guess that something along these lines was crossing Swen's mind when he paused during that disclaimer update and said, 'I am really not sure this is a good idea.'
That said, the piracy concern is definitely a legitimate further reason not to release alpha/betas outside of select test-groups. However I'd argue that by far the primary concern is the reception amongst backers/buyers. I doubt that there will be huge numbers of pirates stealing the alpha, not appreciating that it is an alpha and disliking it enough to rubbish it around the net. And in any case, the problem remains that indie studios (especially those that use kickstarter and so need pledge rewards) need backer feedback as a cost-effective alternative to publisher-funded in-house testing. It would appear that the solution to this problem isn't to combat piracy, which has proven mostly futile anyway, but to polish the alpha/beta as much as possible and effectively communicate with your backers about the development process. Larian has done both of these things pretty well imo, and I'm getting the impression that D:OS's alpha is being received well accordingly, though I should mention I haven't played it myself.
So, I suppose my opinion is that if you are prepared to release your alpha/beta to tens of thousands of kickstarter backers and/or press, piracy shouldn't really be much of an additional worry. The die has already been cast at that point... or rolled if you prefer.
