Actually the vault guard's identity is more complicated than that. It depends on two quests: what - or how well - you do, and what order you do them in:
- the cowardly guards at the lighthouse - if you do this first, and cooperate with them, the male guard ends up on vault guard duty. And you have a friend.
- the three guards at the mine - if you do this one first, and a specific guard survives (dunno if all three have to survive), he ends up on vault guard duty. And you have a friend.
- if you do the lighthouse first, but refuse to lie, the cowardly guards run to the lighthouse. If you follow, they run back out, run away, and disappear from the game. Then you can d the mine quest and as noted above.
- haven't tested this, but presumably if you do the mine quest first and they all die, you should then be able to do the lighthouse quest as noted and get a friend on vault guard duty.
- if you blow off the lighthouse guards and let all three guards die at the mine, the generic unfriendly vault guard never changes.
And yeah, this is all informal - no log entries or anything. I kind of like that, actually. Feels more like a live world.