Wouldn't verifying local files have it check the install folder, rather than the temporary download folder?
I'm unsure, but if it does count the new key as an entirely new game, it may attempt to download it first into the "downloads" directory. That's why I mentioned it. Still, we won't know for sure until tomorrow.
As for the release time, Steam (for example) usually releases games at 10AM Pacific Time (GMT -8), if that helps.
