the guesser does not have a 100% chance to get the dollar 25% of the time, it depends the sample and the biases of the guesser.
Incorrect, the fact that the dollar is there makes what you just said false. The fact of the dollar is present alone means that there is a 100% chance for it to be pulled, every single time no matter what pocket the guesser chooses.
Adding in elimination factors does not change the dollar having a 100% to be pulled. What changes a 100% chance for the dollar to be pulled, is actually eliminating the dollar itself.
When it comes to chance to pull the dollar the guesser either has a 0% chance to pull it because it's not thee, or a 100% chance to pull it because it is there, there is no in between.
What you don't seem to get is that you can tell me you have one dollar in your pocket BUT that is not a FACT.
If I put a dollar in my pocket then it's a fact, it doesn't matter if someone thinks it's not there.
