You could also incorrectly state that they will have a 100% chance to guess which pocket the dollar is in. The incorrect logical jump with that statement is that there is a 100% chance at a 25% probability. The first use of 100% in this sentence is redundant. There is no need to state that, since the key to the probability math is the 25%.
I thought this is what he was arguing. I even brought it up in one of my posts:
We're assuming the guesser only gets one guess. I agree that the guesser has a 100% chance to get the dollar 25% of the time, as weird as your wording on that is.
You could paraphrase that to make more sense: The guesser definitely has a 25% chance to get the dollar that is 100% in one of the 4 pockets.
In order to have a 100% chance to get the dollar, the guesser would have to have 4 guesses with a 25% chance per guess, assuming the guesser never guesses the same pocket twice.
It's not what he's saying according to him. Then he goes on to pretty much agree that IS what he's saying in this roundabout way:
If I have a dollar in one of my pockets then that makes a 100% chance to get the dollar no matter what someone decides to do.
If someone does not want to guess, there is still a 100% chance to get the dollar simply because it's present.
If someone guesses, there is still a 100% chance to get the dollar simply because it's present.
If someone guesses the wrong pocket, there is still a 100% chance to get the dollar simply because it's present.
We all know what he's trying to say, but he's saying it in such a wrong way and he's so confused that he ends up disagreeing with us telling us we don't get it.
I think there is a language or literacy barrier causing the confusion, I can't tell which. Or maybe he's just a great troll.
