To have modders you also need to have active players so the big patch might change things for the better, but I wouldn't count on that doing a huge dent into active modding numbers
Critical phase for modding is the first month after release.
Either way, Baardvark already summed it up. The "Export Tool" came too late, only 1 mod at a time also makes visual and gimmick mods nay impossible to garner any popularity and the learning curve for certain things (Adding new armor, weapons) is a learning cliff.. not even particularly the editor itself, although the scripting language is special ,p , but just flat out basic things like importing texture or a mesh. If you actually wanted to replace character meshes and add custom animations you'd have to have modding abilities that rival uber geek level game devs, as in without RadGameTool license and tools, you literally could not do that until the Export Tool was out (meshes, anyway).
Now it is possible to add new armor and weapons, but nobody is experimenting with it apparently. Probably because of that point 5 in Baardvarks post
