You're probably right. I found a guide that tells what to try if you get that error. I tried turning off anti-aliasing and disabling Shadowplay (by deleting Shadowplay on Start up in the registry), but neither of those worked. Next thing to try is cleaning the fans, which are probably pretty dusty.
Or I can wait a couple weeks until my new computer arrives, which will have an RTX 2080. I'm way past due - my current comp is about 6-7 years old (whenever GTX 680 was top of the line).