It'll be another year at least before BG3 is released - and I say that with absolute confidence based entirely on the fact that all we have on BG 3 is a cinematic trailer.
Is that the only thing you're basing it on?
To frame it from a different angle; We're better off hoping it's at least another year before we get to play anything.
Swen also said on multiple occasions that fans are going to have to wait patiently, and everything that has been implied, suggests it's still way off. That, backed up with lack of advertisement (which one of the last things you actively do), it's just anything but weird to even expect anything any earlier.
