Ok, I understood your "Casual game point that is definitely the worst-case scenario that could happen." Please don't troll spam forum( I don't want to feed the troll).
I think Baldur's gate and larian are aiming for different audiences, then casual gamers. If they want a bigger audience they would aim for "general gamers" We could call this the same kind audience than Dragon Age series had. I think Baldur's gate needs to be slightly Darker than Dragon Age was.
My tip for Larian on storytelling, Don't hold your punches in storytelling. Dare to go darker than we ever dared almost. Create almost like a gothic horror fantasy movie incarnate. Make us make difficult mature philosophical choices that has no right answer. And give us a glimpse of comic relief, with hamsters so the journey doesn't become too overwhelming. Make us fear this game, but make it so awesome that we can't stop play it.
You're preaching to the choir, man. That's the direction I'd like them to go in as well (I'm a fan of Shin Megami Tensei) but going overboard with edginess turns your game into a niche product so it's a toss-up as to what course will be charted in the end.