Its about putting all the pieces from different sources together and then extrapolating from the data.

We know:

1. We will be traveling along the river towards Baldur's Gate for over 200 miles.
2. We know that we will run into Refugees, including Tieflings blamed for a city disappearing into Hell, and others along the way to BG. Refugees played a role in Baldur's Gate: Descent into Avernus too.
3. We know we have a special camp, where we can long rest and do other activies.
4. We know we can recruit camp followers who can do stuff like be Vendors.
5. We know that Mercanies and Companions can be found at your camp site, even when they aren't in you party
6. We know parts of the story play out in the camp
7. We know we can recruit Volo as a Camp follower
8. We know others have been infected by the same sorr of mutant tadpole.