I will first play a custom character, because that's what role-play is about, for me anyway. Also, I like the fact that custom characters do not have voice acting, and hope that is not changed.
In truth, I will likely never play an origin character, as I will have experienced their story in the game already. I will never play MP, so any aspect of origin characters related to that is wasted on me. It's more likely, in fact, that I would play completely custom parties, than play origin characters.
However, if I were to ever choose to play an Origin character, it would probably be Astarion, because he will not be in any other playthrough of mine, however many times I play ( assuming Larian don't add any more origin characters that are even less appealing to me than Astarion ).