It might be a Baldur's Gate game, but more like a spinoff. It most definitely not the third instalment though. This game draws more similarities with both the mature aspects and gameplay from games like Dragon Age and The Witcher.
Is it in the same universe as the first two games? yes. But every Forgotten Realms game is. Doesn't make them a BG game. I would call it Baldur's Gate: Disciples of the Absolute. Or something like that, like you had long time a go the Dark Alliance games, but it is not BG3, having cameos from the older games won't change much. It's a total departure from the theme, tone, gameplay, and storytelling of the first games.
Look at Daggerfall and Skyrim. As much as they are so far away from each other, they are both still clearly an Elder Scrolls games. Same goes for Mass Effect, or Witcher or Dragon Age, or Neverwinter. But BG3 have nothing in common with the first games, only the lore, and lore is really not enough.
