I play D&D with a virtual tabletop program where a computer does all the rolling. Without fail, some players always feel like the dice rolling is “broken” because they keep getting low rolls. I even had a player go as far as to record like 100 rolls to see if there was some kind of “bias.”
But really, it’s just bad luck. There is no gremlin in the machine making your rolls suck. It happens with real dice, and it happens with a computer generating numbers. Sometimes, you just roll badly.
I know that; I've programmed a number of random number generators while practicing in Python 3.
But given the sheer number of people reporting low rolls and the fact that the game outright tells you your to-hit chance, it is also possible Larian misplaced a decimal or added an extra 0 somewhere and skewed everything.
Heck, not only possible, but probable. There's always that time you hit an extra key, or your keyboard did not record a keystroke, and you just missed it, because it did not break the code.
1 or 10 people having low rolls is 'just bad luck' but I have seen a number of people, between this forum and Steam's forum, mentioning low conversation rolls, and the game outright SHOWS that spellcasters to-hits are sub-50% in almost every fight.
This, to me, hints that something may have been missed in the Early Access.
And since it's EA, it's our duty to report this so Larian will know if enough people have the problem, which changes from 'just back luck' to 'We missed something'.
And even if it IS just back luck, the fact that spellcasters are frequently getting upwards of 30%-40% less to-hit than physical attackers is a balance problem.