Surfaces are great, they really don’t do that much raw damage unless you have a run through a huge one...which seems relatively rare unless you are using barrels or something.
The point about melee being “useless” because fire bolt does 1d6 + 1d4 and then 1d4 from burning per round is also wrong. It’s great at like level one, but even then a fighter can do 2d6+3 in one hit. And at level 4, they can do 2d6+13 with great weapon master.
That’s hardy useless.
Here, you conveniently ignore the HP risk exposure of AoOs and other threats that come with melee range fighting, the massive to-hit penalty fighters take in exchange for that extra damage, you take one of two martial weapons - which are both two-handed mind you - that deal 2d6 damage as the example, and assume that the surface Firebolt ignites will deal damage to only one target. You have to idealize the fighter to compete with an at-will cantrip that is neither gear nor resource dependent.
I think the increase in damage will drop off as soon as the players hit level 5, if Larian just increases the d6 of Firebolt and does not increase the burn damage (which is what I imagine is the case):
Firebolt + 2 ticks of fire: 2d6 + 1d4 + 1d4 = 4-20 damage,
Fighter with a basic shortsword and 4 str/dex Mod: 1d6+4 x 2 = 10-20 damage.
Sure, the fighter may be exposed to taking more damage, but if anything the AI constantly snipes my wizard, which realistically they should be doing anyway.
Yes, the fighter may miss, reducing the damage, but so can the firebolt which then will do some mild fire damage. which the higher the level the less significant it will become.
Sure, you can argue fighters should shine at lower levels because they get outclassed by spellcasters later on, but since Larian frontloaded fighters with some abilities already I am sure fighting as a fighter at level 10 will be comparable in impact as a wizard at level 10