Originally Posted by clavis
uuuuug percentaaaages blaaaah. okay line up D&D class

it's not percentage in D&D nor in this game despite what that bullshit % stands for, it's a lie straight up.


Which is still a percentage. Unless you are claiming that the entire field of probability is a lie? Pretty much the very first lesson you will ever get on probability, will begin with a 6 sided dice.

Originally Posted by clavis

Way it works is like this.

Your target has an armor class 10+armor score+dex (maybe heavy armor doesn't count dex, and some medium armors limit the dex modifier.)

Say your enemy has an AC of 15 (pretty standard from looking at everything in combat log)

So you roll a d20 and have to either tie or beat that 15 (1's fail automatically, 20's always hit for double the damage)

If you have the mentioned +3 to strength, and +2 to profiency for a total of +5 your only need to roll a 10 or above to hit.



So you need to roll 10, 11,12...19, 20 to hit. There are 11 possible successful outcomes. 11/20 = 0.55, or more conveniently, 55% chance.

Originally Posted by clavis


add a +1 weapon now you need only roll a 9 or higher to hit.

Now if your unlucky and can't get a good roll your screwed which is why the % is a lie.

Up to 60% chance here. Getting unlucky has no effect on this, unless you are arguing that it is a biased dice?


Originally Posted by clavis


With advantage your rolling twice doubling your chance of getting what you need.

with disadvantage your rolling twice aaaand halving the chances of getting what you need.


With Advantage, your chance of success is 1-Chance of failing twice in a row, which is 1-x^2. In the example above, with a 40% chance to fail, thats 1-0.4^2, or 84% chance to succeed. The only time advantage "doubles" the chance of getting what you want is when you have a 50% chance to hit. If it is less than 50% chance, it is less than double and if it is more than a 50% chance, it is more than doubled. The same goes for disadvantage.

Originally Posted by clavis


So +1's are rather handy to further lower the number that you need in order to hit. And sometimes that is a woooorld of difference especially if enemy has an AC of 18 meaning you only have three numbers that will result in a hit, or if there AC is over 20. meaning unless you roll a 20 your not going to hit.

It adds a 5% chance to hit.