Originally Posted by Baraz
Originally Posted by ReaLMoisan
Is anyone at Larian studios familiar with math and probabilities?
Passing one check requiring 16 or higher on a d20 = 25%
Passing two checks requiring 16 or higher on a d20 = 6.25%
Passing three checks requiring 16 or higher on a d20 = 1.56%
And when all three checks are required to pass for an outcome to occur, well, good luck.

Yes they are quite aware : there combat system uses percentages.
Which is why most social/dialogue rolls have a base DC of 10 or lower ! If it is higher, it is because they feel that NPC does not want to move on that point.

Considering they're not aware how to handle skill checks in a 5e setting, we can't assume they understand how conditional probability works either. Also, it's not their combat system, they're using an evolution of a system created by Dave Arneson and Gary Gygax over 45 years ago, and Larian just has the licensing rights to use them for BG3. Considering how incompetently they've incorporated other aspects of D&D into this game, I am not so sure they actually do understand how to calculate DC checks accurately for difficulty and character skill levels.