A fair point on spell effectiveness and yes it also might mean they would need rebalance a lot and they will. We can already see a lot of changes and it's not the last of those, EA will last 1 year+. I would not worry about Fireball at this point, especially because it will for sure leave a fire surface that is pretty powerful in BG3 for zillion reasons. If anything they might need to nerf Fireball a bit, just like they did with Firebolt. Same goes for sleep - if they really will up HP across the board, they will buff Sleep and similar spells too eventually.
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That's the whole point of this post. I don't want them to start rebalancing and changing everything for trivial reasons.
They ONLY need to make the misses exciting so it looks like intense combat instead of incompetent PC's. And that's something a video game can do better than tabletop anyway.
Look, an epic "miss" animation is cool and all, but that will become old very quickly. So I don't see the point in that. If I am seeing it 50% of the time (which would happen at AC 15 with lower level chars) I will get bored regardless.
Plus, at with low AC creatures disadvantage is much less punishing, and disadvantage on attacks (at least ranged) does seem to come up more in the game than in 5e because of reduced ranges/verticality.
