Larian Studios Forums Baldur's Gate III Baldur's Gate III - General Miss! Miss! CRITICAL MISS! Miss! Miss! Miss! Miss!

30% I understand.
50% I also understand.
But 75% and over? Really?

And how do you miss with the guy standing right in front of you? Why not just say dodge? That would make me feel a little better.

There does seem to be something screwy with the RNG unless the chance-to-hit isn't the full story. I've noticed the 75+% chance translates into "will probably miss" and it frequently does it several times in a row. And not just as a one-off either, it's been a real pain all the way through. There's also something a bit off with rolling low during speech checks too, I've noticed: I've now learnt to F5 before talking with anyone as there seems to be an overwhelming likelihood it'll fail however high or low the number.

I am going to say it if it makes you feel better: As currently implemented, Miss is not just you missing the target, is also hitting and not doing damage.

F5?

I got a critical miss on 98% chance to hit, but that still does mean that theres a 2% chance to miss and that's what happened.

RNG is RNG. Unless it says 100%, don't expect not to fail.

Quicksave for save scumming. I constantly mash F5 before every encounter.

Ok Professor.

Give me the likelyhood of missing 14 times in a row with above 50% to 80% hit chance.

I think you maybe over exaggerating because I save scum a lot and the hit chances are consistent with what is displayed.

Dude I am telling you there are certain mobs that have insane dodge/miss chance.

I cleared the whole goblin courtyard with 4 level 4.
But two Bug Bears killed my team because I literally could not hit them.The Miss chance of this game is messed up.

For fun, in my game, Laezel rolled 3 Crits in a row against Sort of felt like a movie.

Probability is 0.0125 % (0.000125)

Yeah but dude.. it happens a lot. Like.. a lot a lot. An overwhelming amount of times that makes it not normal and something is off. I've also noticed that some enemies get to just run by a melee-engaged party member with no opportunity attack, despite not using disengage. Like, it just doesn't trigger half the time. And the AI still overwhelmingly targets and optimizes a strat against low AC/critical party members, cleric and rogue being the most common. My first playthrough I had one hell of a time keeping Astarion and Shadowheart alive, they would just get ganged up on immediately no matter how I placed them or tried to funnel the flow of enemy approach.

I did notice some AoO not triggering, though I know it is only once per turn.

And yes the AI tends to focus the cleric I noticed, and she has mediocre AC (at level 4, I gave her 10 Dex and gave her a half-plate which is Medium armor).

Sometimes I feel like I'm the only one who isn't having issues with hitting things.
Creating advantages for yourself dramatically increases your hit chance.
If ranged, take high ground. If melee, get to the side of or behind the target. Ensure that the target is well-lit.
Suddenly, you've got an 85%+ chance to hit a grand majority of the time.

I don't feel like the miss chances are screwy at all. Something like 85% isn't 100% just because it's highly likely that you'll connect. There's still a 15% per roll that you're going to miss.
If you were seeing very long strings of misses and you met all of the advantage conditions and you were working around resistances for saves, then I'd say that there was an issue.
After 60+ hours of played time across many classes, I've found that to never be the case and the hit rates are accurate.

I am not a professor, and I don't know how old the princess will be when she is twice as old as the prince was when he was half their combined age, but I think the Bernoulli trial probability math gets pretty simple for the case of a single repeated outcome. If you have a random 50% chance to hit each time, then I believe the probability of missing 14 times in a row is (0.5)¹⁴ = 6.1 × 10⁻⁵, which I interpret as not something you should not expect to see very often, even after thousands of hours of play.

I think it is definitely worth looking at as people seem to be having a reoccurring problem with hit chances but would it possible for someone to post a screencap of it happening alongside characters stats so we can determine if there is a problem that is not being noticed? I've personally never encountered such a consistent streak of bad luck but I came into this with a lot of experience and knowledge so I would not know if that is a mitigating factor.

>> Bernoulli trial probability math gets pretty simple for the case of a single repeated outcome.

That was amazing Argyle.

Also, agree with OP, something seems incorrect about displayed hit probability. Anything below 85% or so seems very likely to miss.

Even in the demo videos from Larian, they missed twice in a row with something around 90% chance to hit and mafe a joke about stormtroopers.

It would be very easy to demonstrate though, make a quicksave before an attack at say 75%, then record a video of reloading and making the same attack over and over.

Agreed. Whilst I wouldn't completely rule out an issue with the RNG (this being Early Access and all) --


there is absolutely nothing obvious going on with that in the way people make it sound.


The majority of these threads can be explained with confirmation bias plus what Tim Cain of Fallout fame says here (sorry for always linking that, this is a must watch for anybody, maybe even Larian's own QA / playtesters).

https://youtu.be/MEewLWDpscA?t=1500

Yes, this can be very frustrating. Another thing that was frustrating to me that I didn't know you can get was the Brain companion at the very beginning while you are on the ship. I managed to roll all high numbers and recruited it BUT my game glitched and crashed BEFORE I could save. When I tried to do it again, I kept rolling low numbers over and over and over again until I gave up and move on. That was soooooo frustrating. I was very upset that I missed the chance of getting it as an extra companion on the ship.

Agreed. Whilst I wouldn't completely rule out an issue with the RNG (this being Early Access and all) --


there is absolutely nothing obvious going on with that in the way people make it sound.


The majority of these threads can be explained with confirmation bias plus what Tim Cain of Fallout fame says here (sorry for always linking that, this is a must watch for anybody, maybe even Larian's playtesters).

https://youtu.be/MEewLWDpscA?t=1500




"Will perhaps miss" is what a 75% chance literally is. It's akin to rolling at least a 7 on the D20. Long-term average, a fourth of all rolls should be a miss. Missing twice in a row is as low as a 1 in 16 chance, doing so thrice a 1 in 64 chance, all of which very likely to happen if you factor in how often you roll and how many hours you may play. Everybody should experience this quite frequently. Even missing that 75% chance four times in a row is not any higher than a 1 in 256 chance, hugely far from winning the lottery.