I feel like this thread is too focused on the arbitrary percentage in the lower left corner. I personally didn't pay much attention to it since it isn't explained anywhere how it's calculated. SOMETIMES you see modifiers next to it, like " ^ High Ground" but you don't always do, and most of the time I have very little idea why my hit chance is only 50% while I'm standing in a well lit room next to an Ogre the size of a barn door.
You can check this some in the combat log, at least it displays advantage/disadvantage. Low hit chances next to an opponent are typically ranged attacks, as you gain disadvantage with any ranged attack if the enemy is (too) close. It could be simply a high armor class though, a buff on the enemy or a debuff on the character.
Originally Posted by Jilljedin
So, like others mentioned, there are factors affecting your hit chance that are not expressed in the numbers and are not very clear.
Characters who can't see enemies fully due to darkness have disadvantage on their roll, which is calculated into the percentage displayed. E.g. Lae'zel who doesn't have darkvision targets a phase spider clouded in darkness. The phase spider has an armor class of 13, Lae'zel an overall attack bonus of +5. Therefore she would need to roll an eight, which is a 65% chance. Due to the disadvantage, you roll the dice twice and are forced to take the lower one, which makes this but a 42% chance. This is being displayed correctly, it also says in the combat log that the character was at a disadvantage (due to not seeing the enemy properly).
Ideally there should be a turtorial how the more basic things work, too.
