Yeah you are not wrong. It is set in the Forgotten Realms, like many other games before. Still Neverwinter Nights and Icewind Dale did make some nods here and there to the other games set in the series, but they played in different times and/or regions, hence the different name according to their setting.
It is also safe to assume that many players of BG1 and 2 have never played or read anything else in this setting, I sure never did. It was just an RPG to me at that time so that is all that I know of the setting and the lore. Therefore I associate the city of Baldur's Gate and the name directly with the story that unfolded in these games, this includes locations, characters, items etc.. So now we have a game that is distinctly and deliberately called Baldur's Gate 3. So I am expecting not a game that shares the same setting like Neverwinter Nights, or the gameplay like Icewind Dale, or the spiritual successor like PoE, but a real successor to the games. Now I do not need a continuation of the story, as the arc seemed finished, but a game that is clearly defined by the events of the story and the BG1+2 game itself. At this moment in time there is nothing really. It is just a Forgotten Realms RPG.
I am assuming there will be more things that are added, I just do not think it is enough to put a town (Baldur's Gate) in and a character (Minsc), to justify the Baldur's Gate 3 name.