I was curious, so I started a new game and tracked the results of the displayed rolls. At the time of this post I got so far:
Character: Warlock (The Great Old One)
Companions: Shadowheart, Astarion, Lae'zel
Progress: Cleared Ruins, Visited Grove (Killed Harpies), Cleared Blighted Village, Cleared Spiders (the series of "80"s at the end is from cheesing the spider queen with Astarion^^)

I have gathered my results in a google sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...DK2Kg9oZhCCaNZ6p8ijWPM/edit?usp=sharing.
The "Stats" sheet contains the analysis of the raw data in the "Data" sheet. 100% chances are not recorded. I admit the statistics I employ are a bit dirty.

But as far as I can see it seems that the probabilities/rolls in the game actually work out. The error charts show that very well. The error between actual and expected rolls gets smaller with an increasing number of rolls.

Last edited by TyPinOwly; 21/10/20 07:23 PM.