We don't know since when Raphael knows about the Absolute. A nautiloid showing up in Avernus would hardly go unnoticed.
I don't think that the Mindflayers on the Ship were not aware of what was going on with the tadpoles. The one questioned by Ragzlin certainly knows a lot about the Absolute.
Let's assume that someone tampered with all tadpoles in existence. That would be an existential threat to the Mindflayers because they could no longer create new Mindflayers. So they started to experiment with a device that can initiate rapid ceremorphosis on the modified tadpoles.
I don't believe that to be the case but it would explain the seeming contradiction between the "new tadpoles that never transform hosts" and "instant transform technology"
We know that Larian made it so that the Mindflayers of Ryxyg don't want to hold slaves. We also know that the True-Souls are a sort of super soldiers in the service of some mindflayers. If the Mindflayers of Ryxyg don't want to hold slaves anymore then what do they eat? They must hunt or find an alternate means of sustenance. Maybe this is where the pact with the Absolute comes into play.

Last edited by ArmouredHedgehog; 29/10/20 10:44 PM.
I sometimes use thought experiments. I don't necessarily believe in every idea I post for discussion on this forum