This is amazing. Thank you for taking the time to run such a detailed simulation to dive deeper into a very interesting discussion. One thing I am curious about - not sure if it's an excessive amount of work to do - is if we adjust the input data to match the game-stats better, I wonder how that changes the results?
I ask this because
the 8 AC, 14 HP ratio may be an exaggerated ratio.
Some thoughts on the conclusions:
...including very
big indirect nerf of:
- damaging spells and abilities vs DC (no advantage for those spell, enemies have more HP but same DC)
Can we consider this a universal nerf, if the increased HP falls within
range of other CR 1/4 creatures? For example, 14 HP is definitely high for goblins RAW, but it isn't an absurd amount for CR 1/4 foes. In 5e, we've many CR 1/4 monsters with similar or higher HP:
- Albino Dwarf Warriors (Tomb of Annihilation) - 30 hp, 13 ac
- Kenkus (Monster Manual) - 13 hp, 13 ac
- Giant Frog (Monster Manual) - 18 hp, 11 ac
- Ash Zombie (Lost Mines of Phandelver) - 22 hp, 8 ac
- Abyssal Wretch (Mordenkainen's Tome of Foes) - 18 hp, 11 ac
- Blink Dog (Monster Manual) - 22 hp, 13 ac
The point is that a HUGE range of HP/AC ratio fits within the same CR (1/4) as goblins under 5e RAW. If anything, it's a extremely low ACs (8, 9) present on certain goblin types that might be the problem.
If Larian had chosen one of the above to use RAW instead of adjusting goblins, we might end up with a similar result, and it'd still fall inside the intended balance of 5e D&D.
- spells and abilities which grant advantage or impose disadvantage (because backstab or high ground is easier and cost no resource and everybody can use it, no team cooperation is needed)
The main benefactors of easier to obtain advantage/disadvantage would be the martials IMO - since most casters gain tricks to impose advantage relatively early. I'm not 100% against this rebalancing since casters tend to be more powerful than martials in 5e anyway. We do have to factor in the additional Bonus Actions (Shove) and easy resting in BG3 to the overall caster vs. martial balance equation though. Ultimately, I do think getting advantage too easily is overkill with the lowered AC (since it messes up criticals and also bless, etc), and I'd like to see that adjusted.
In regards to the team cooperation aspect, would you mind elaborating what you mean by that? Or is that referenced in another thread?
- spells or abilities requiring concentration (concentration needs to be hold for a little bit longer due to higher median but concentration checks are much more frequent due to damage from surface effect)
Agree 100%, non-dodgeable surface effects fundamentally breaks 5E imo.
