Pretty cool analysis here, just goes to show that we can't just port pure martial classes to BG3 without change. Missing streaks are ok in pnp, because you or the DM can narrate those as an intense fight. But you can't do it in BG3.
I don't think adding animations for miss streaks will resolve the issue - half of the time I am not really looking at it anyway.
Using pseudo-random dice rolls can be a solution, but it will add too much complexity to the game and confuse players. Is the miss counter attached to a PC, enemy, or a PC/enemy pair? How would switching targets effect your chance to hit, etc.
I think lowering AC/increasing HP is the most straightforward way to do this. Plus, there are plenty of creatures at CR 1/4 at similar HP/AC levels, as Topgoon mentioned above. So you can just think about goblins as re-skinned enemies that already exist in 5e.
Should some spells be adjusted for it - perhaps.
