I think some or all of the people around us will turn out to be this (I recommend watching whole, but timestamped the interesting part) -
https://youtu.be/F6i5vjVeEQo?t=144 +
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e22q8l2Jpak&feature=youtu.be&t=712 that Chris Perkins talks about. Insane? Please, hear me out;
Who I found that made it to Barovia so far: Volo, Minsc, Jander (has potential BG overlaps with Astarion - his master was Cassir), Mordekainen (possibly something to do with Gale's quest?), I think there might be other ones...
With this theory in mind I think it's good to revisit Shadowfell and shadow people too:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aR3eI37-r74The way he also describes how deeds in regions affect how the shadowfell forms. I believe it might play a role in BG3. Each region might have a select of choices, some maybe you can decide if you corrupt them or not and others will depend if you affect your companions/npcs or not. For example - how you can make Wyll torture the guy for Spike or torture him yourself. Or how you can let Astarion flip out at the hunter or kill the hunter yourself.
It's like shadow people are leaking, literally and you might be expected to either babysit them or let the chaos run.
Sthrad and ShadowfellGur vs.
VistaniGur sounds like Vistani before they got corrupted by Shar and drenched in shadowfell juice.
(I am also inclined to say that following Astarion's choices will somehow result into bringing Cyric back in power, but that's a rabbit hole I am entirely too tired to explain right now.)