Nope, no crits in the average as I wasn't sure how to include it, I thought I didn't factor 2handed weapons in the dual wield section? But it "does" say 2 weapon fighting, so that is misleading in titles. Also having to roll to hit twice potentially reduces the average damage of the offhand attack, but I truncated that as again, too complicated and just considering possible dmg not chance to hit included.

Extra attack at 5 is huge factor I wasn't thinking about.

I guess this all stemmed from a question I had in my head "is it worth it to pick up the dueling trait to increase single weapon dmg and use a shield? Is it comparable to dual wielding, or 2handed attacks?

What it looks like preliminary answers from the data was, everyone should just dual wield until level 4 when you can pick up Great Weapon Master.