Well, that's confusing. My mistake on her approval of Minthara's plan, must have remembered it wrong.
I don't abide to the 'hostage' argument, though. Just in the previous BGs companions could leave the party, or outright attack, if their morals and beliefs were questioned (which makes me question what Gale is, since i'm sure Wyll will leave the party in next iterations of the game in the evil route but not so sure about Gale). And Tav also isn't really the Jedi Exile from Kotor 2, aka a character who's subconsciously manipulating other people into becoming like him.
Back going back to SH, I do think she'll probably end up being neutral or even good based on how she generally behaves, but, again, a character who's willing to go along with something so firmly in the evil scale because it's somewhat convenient to them simply isn't 'live and let live'.
I also would like to point that not all evil characters need be evil all the time, much like not all chaotic neutrals needn't be the tropy 'screw with everyone' type, or every lawful good the dumb paladin. They all can be, sure, but they also can be more or less regular people with boundaries and emotions, just backed up by different sets of morals. In Kingmaker i have a lawful evil character who wants to be hailed as a god and basically shackle the people he reigns over to an oppresive regime, but he also does the occational good deed, out of actual goodness, based on his emotional response to certain situations and even keeps around a bunch of his companions solely because he grew attached to them.
In the specific case of the tieflings, i can easily see that evil character seriously considering going with Minthara but ultimately not doing it simply because Halsin appears to be more reliable than a bunch of goblin nutjobs, and because the nutjobs want to attack the place with the hugeass walls, and maybe even because he likes the thief kids and a couple other people.
So yeah, i don't think (neutral) evil needs to mean evil sadistic monster (and evil sadistic monsters needn't be evil sadistic monster all the time, see Astarion). Neutral evil most especially can easily be a blend of 'i'd rather not kill a bunch of innocent people' and 'but i'll do it if it benefits me'.
That's right, and Wyll leaves you if you choose the path of evil, literally, if you kill tieflings, Wyll immediately leaves you. I think that Shadow can be swayed in any direction, both for evil and for good, but she herself, judging by her statements, does not want to harm others. I also do not consider Astarion a neutral evil, he is completely chaotic, there is no benefit or logic in his actions. So for me, he is a Chaotic evil, and Lae is Lawful. Gale is one big mystery, all I can say is that he's an excellent manipulator.
As for Shadow, I would agree with you if it wasn't for that scene at the goblin party where she wants to "drown" her grief in alcohol. It looks strange for an evil character, she could just not care, and she feels guilty for some refugees, on whom she only recently did not care.
But…
Shadow has memory loss, maybe that's the problem. If she doesn't know herself, how can we know her? She's obsessed with her mission.