This proposal devalues Spell Slots too. Not just STR/DEX and Proficiency Modifier (for your to hit chance).
Exactly - reducing AC has effects on game balance even with increasing HP, and I explained those that I saw as most direct (effects on proficiency and STR/DEX). Additional effects like devalued Spell Slots only confirm that reduced AC proposal changes game balance.
I understand very well that even with 95% hit chance we will still see misses, and I'm perfectly ok with that. In fact, those numbers I have shown ( like 85% hit chance) come from exact expectations of average misses - with 85% average hit chance across all characters, we will miss on average once every 2nd turn. Each individual character will miss on average once every 6th turn. And there is still chance that I will miss multiple times in a row ( chance for 4 times in a row in 85% case is 0.05%, but its still there )
And I fully understand that it is all about personal taste - after all, I still selected GWM warrior, even knowing that misses annoy me, because I happened to like 2H weapons more than dual wielding.
But there is one interesting part of your post where I do not have enough experience about :
with higher levels, magic items, spells, it's actually quite easy to achieve 95% hit-chance
If this frequent misses will go away before half the game, I could accept it. But I did not see what BG3 or DnD rule would help with higher levels ?
I understood that we will slowly increase proficiency, at 1 per 4 levels, and since I read that max level will be 10 it means proficiency will cap at ... 3? That is just one more point than now. Same with abilities, we get 2 more points at lvl 8, which translate to one more Ability Modifier point. That totals +2 to Attack Rolls.
On the other hand, I also understood that DnD rules call for increased AC with mob difficulty, it was from 13 to 19 AC IIRC, which is +6 AC ... and if that is across 20 lvl range and if I can assume +3 AC at lvl 10 compared to now, that totally annuls those +2 improvements and make missing even more often at lvl 10. Regarding spells, I looked at full list of spells on wiki, and unless those are only early access spells, only Bless affected directly attack without giving advantage.
In short, can I really expect less misses on higher levels?