I think you're misunderstanding the situation. The problem with the RNG isn't just or mainly psychological. The problem is that the RNG is badly coded and gives clumped results. This is a common issue for badly written RNGs.
The problem with the loaded dice solution is then that it isn't a solution -- it is a crutch. The difference between a solution and a crutch is that with a solution the problem is solved, but with a crutch, the problem is worked around but remains. The RNG is like a leaking pipe and the loaded die crutch is a bucket placed under it instead of fixing the pipe. If they said that hey this is a short time measure because rewriting the RNG is a big procedure and will take time, that would be fine. But if this is their long time "solution"... well, it doesn't solve anything.
So no, Niara is not contradicting herself. And the people who complain about misses aren't just silly people with negative confirmation bias. This is Larian making a RNG-based game with a mediocre RNG code. And that might have been okay if this was a small indie game but it's far below AAA quality.
No, to the contrary it seems to me you are clearly yet another person who failed to read or understand what I wrote. How you even manage to concoct the mental exercise of this issue being Larian's ability to do math/code is beyond me, but please do attempt to explain the exact issue rather than conjure fanciful imagery.
I say this as a vocal critic of Larian, but clearly we ARE dealing with psychology -- on several levels. I predicted this uproar even before the latest live stream as many already felt let down by Larian's lackluster communication with the community and people have had time to build up unrealistic expectations.
