Originally Posted by grysqrl
Originally Posted by Arkhan
Playing again last night my MC tried to lift the burning wood off the guy in the burning Manor House (I forget his name, but I am sure you know the one). I had to make 9 on a d20, failed the first try, and admit just reloaded a save. I am sometimes tempted to do this, but usually resist. However, this time, out of bloody mindedness, I decided to keep reloading until I succeeded. It took me eight attempts (i.e. I failed 7 times).

The probability of this happening, getting a fail 7 times in a row, is (8/20)^7 = 0.0016384 or about 1 in 610. Hmmm
The probability of it happening right at this point maybe be fairly low, but this is just when you happened to notice it. The probability of having 7 low rolls in a row at some point is actually fairly good. It would be weird if it didn't happen from time to time.

The probability of rolling on a die does not change because you "notice it". The probably of rolling a 20 sided die 7 times and getting a number 8 or lower, is exactly what the poster said.

Larian's RNG code is demonstrably broken.