Yeah, a 1 in 610 chance boils down to that for every 610 people who play the game, you're likely to get one who experiences these numbers. Given that it's been sold by millions and probably played more than once by a fair few of them such runs are definitely expected.
Even with something like DragonSnooz did, meticulously and scientifically record the rolls in a playthrough, you might even see a run with as high a chance as one in a million. Because that playthrough is in fact one playthrough of millions made.
Humans also tend to look for patterns, particularly ones that stand out good or bad, like a series of good runs or bad. I've no idea about the RNG system, but I would have thought that in a modern game that relies on RNG this would be one component they made sure they got right.
That said, there is a difference in how it performs and how we as players experience it. When I see a target of 50%, I assume it's going to miss more than hit, usually at a rate of about 3 to one. And it generally feels like it does so. I completely acknowledge this might be my bias, but it definitely feels askew to me. I am prepared to say that without the actual figures to know if this is right, this is entirely a subjective opinion, but I definitely have it.
We do know that it really doesn't get the whole target/result thing right when you use something like guidance or other variable assists..
Once with my ranger, advantage, bless and a +1 bow I was told I had a 95% chance to hit. I missed. Intuitively you would think I rolled critical misses. Of course it could mean that I had a really low target to hit and I missed both rolls. I looked at the combat rolls and it turned out I had rolled a 4 as my best roll. Turns out I needed to hit a 5 and didn't.
Now, I'm not a maths person, so maybe someone who is could help me. How does rolling a 5 (a 1/4 chance to miss) equate to a 95% chance to succeed? Even with 2 dice rolls. My only way of understanding it is that when it came to the calculations of how likely it was to hit, it rolled high on both bless rolls. Then when it came to actually make the roll for combat, it rolled low on both these.
I really think when it come to bless or guidance or any other numerical variable that modifies the dice roll, it should roll once when you estimate the target you need, then apply that result to the actual roll, rather than re-rolling. Otherwise it makes a mockery of the whole target roll idea and leads to bizarre situations where you roll higher than you need, yet still fail.
