Once with my ranger, advantage, bless and a +1 bow I was told I had a 95% chance to hit. I missed. Intuitively you would think I rolled critical misses. Of course it could mean that I had a really low target to hit and I missed both rolls. I looked at the combat rolls and it turned out I had rolled a 4 as my best roll. Turns out I needed to hit a 5 and didn't.
Now, I'm not a maths person, so maybe someone who is could help me. How does rolling a 5 (a 1/4 chance to miss) equate to a 95% chance to succeed? Even with 2 dice rolls. My only way of understanding it is that when it came to the calculations of how likely it was to hit, it rolled high on both bless rolls. Then when it came to actually make the roll for combat, it rolled low on both these.
Rolling a 5 normally is a 16/20 chance = 80% (not 3/4).
Rolling a 5 with advantage is a 1-(4/20)^2 = 96% chance. (calculated as "100% minus the chance that neither dice rolls higher than a 4")
Seems fine to me.
Edit: I think Larian should list the number on the d20 you need to roll, not the percentage chance of hitting. For this exact reason: it
feels more unfair when you miss with 95%, than you miss on "Need to roll a 5 with advantage"
But yeah I agree with the rest of the things you said:
-Bless should only roll once
-Humans look for patterns, and tend to notice the bad more than the good.
-Humans are bad at detecting randomness
