Playing again last night my MC tried to lift the burning wood off the guy in the burning Manor House (I forget his name, but I am sure you know the one). I had to make 9 on a d20, failed the first try, and admit just reloaded a save. I am sometimes tempted to do this, but usually resist. However, this time, out of bloody mindedness, I decided to keep reloading until I succeeded. It took me eight attempts (i.e. I failed 7 times).
The probability of this happening, getting a fail 7 times in a row, is (8/20)^7 = 0.0016384 or about 1 in 610. Hmmm
WHat you have to bear in mind with this sort of thing is that you are part of a population. Going by SteamDB, there are 4200 people playing BG3 right now. That means your 1 in 610 will likely hit 7 of those people tonight, assuming those people only make 7 rolls each and then log out. The probability of them having a run of 7 fails at that level over the course of an average play session is much, much higher.
