I'm kinda worried that they've already spent 4 years and all we have is one chapter, 4 levels, no multiclass and almost no companions.
Datamining has shown that there is a lot of code in BG3 from chapter 2 and probably also chapter 3. They have managed to find a lot what's supposed to happen when the party gets to Baldur's Gate.
I believe Larian Studios has the entire story created already at a higher level. Early Access is used to iron out bugs in the game mechanisms and getting feedback on what works and doesn't work. This way they can adapt without having to rewrite too much of their code. Once they feel the mechanisms are working and the players like the design then they can finish the parts of the game we haven't seen yet.
It's pretty obvious they can't put too much game story into early access. This doesn't mean chapter 2 and chapter 3 with quests etc. haven't been developed. You just can't access these.
Right now I think they're working hard on adding more companions, classes, races and so on. The druid was released in the last patch and I expect us to see a new race / class every 3rd month or so until the game is finished. The mechanisms for all classes are probably already coded so it's more about fleshing out the new classes with graphics etc. E. g. datamining has been able to find code for smite evil that will be used by paladins.
So I think BG 3 is in a more advanced state than one could think after just playing the early access. Remember that Larian Studios have used early access before for DOS 1+2. It usually takes a bit over 1 year from release of EA until the final version is released. For BG3 I expect a bit longer time because the game is bigger. So a final release time in the Summer of 2022 is definitely realistic. It could be as late as before Christmas 2022. Personally I don't think they will be able to release the game before Christmas 2021, but I would be pleasantly surprised if they do.
