My new patch 4 game brought me to the blighted village. I entered peacefully and then decided to attack the roofguards treacherously.
Party was blessed, Lae'zel started the conflict with a surprise pushing melee attack on one of the roof guards. Percentage success was indicated as 96%
She rolled a 3 and missed. (She had 3+3+2 bonus, so she missed with 11. I think she needed 12. mad)
But if she needed to roll a 4 in 20, then the percentage of success shown should be only 85% right ?

I always wondered why Shadowheart almost always missess her guiding bolt with 65+% hit chance, but if the percentage shown is 10% too high , yea well....