My new patch 4 game brought me to the blighted village. I entered peacefully and then decided to attack the roofguards treacherously.
Party was blessed, Lae'zel started the conflict with a surprise pushing melee attack on one of the roof guards. Percentage success was indicated as 96%
She rolled a 3 and missed. (She had 3+3+2 bonus, so she missed with 11. I think she needed 12.
)
But if she needed to roll a 4 in 20, then the percentage of success shown should be only 85% right ?
I always wondered why Shadowheart almost always missess her guiding bolt with 65+% hit chance, but if the percentage shown is 10% too high , yea well....
The percentage shown is correct*. You must have had advantage.
Probability to roll a 4+ with a single d20: 85%
Probability to roll a 4+ with Advantage: 1-(3/20)^2=98%
*Guidance and Bless are messed up atm. Currently, these roll twice, once before the roll (shown in the UI for % hit chances) and once for the roll (actually used to determine if you hit/succeed). Your first Bless roll must have been a 1, making it so you needed to roll a 5+ with Advantage.
Probability to roll a 5+ with Advantage: 1-(4/20)^2 = 96%
*Oh, also there's currently a bug where it matters where you select an enemy. If you hover over their foot, the UI might say that you have Advantage. However, when the attack is made, the game targets their torso which is higher, and thus you don't actually get height advantage.
