The thread title is a bit sensational and I wouldn't go that far at all, but I get the intent. If none of this is addressed by launch, it might as well be true.
That said, I'm in the camp that thinks realistic tweaks are still possible. Not all of the homebrew is completely bad - I do agree that you should auto fail dex saves if you are knocked down/prone, but I also know that it's only happening right now because being knocked down/prone is currently programmed as being unconscious, considering how it immediately breaks concentration at the same time as well. Larian could go a step further and nerf Fireball and Lightning Bolt to having the same possible damage output as every other damage spell in their spell level, because we all know they're only as powerful as they are in tabletop due to implied traditional reasons. But most of the current homebrew has an overwhelming effect on the combat, and objectively invalidates half of what you can do in the game when one goes into an action economy analysis.
For example, the spell Faerie Fire. An extremely valuable support spell in tabletop, but generally not worth using in BG3. It grants advantage against enemies that fail the saving throw as long as the caster is able to maintain concentration. There are several huge downsides to using it in BG3 that did not exist in tabletop.
1) High ground advantage and backstab advantage are far easier ways to gain advantage without having to use a spell slot, maintain concentration, and hope the enemy fails the dexterity saving throw. Bonus action jump/disengage also existing makes it trivially easy to get high ground/backstab advantage on top of that.
2) Surface effects make it much harder to maintain concentration by potentially forcing you to roll three times before you are able to react to it (the initial attack, the generation of the field under you, and taking that field damage again at the very start of your turn). That's two extra rolls over tabletop, both completely unavoidable with no saving throws to stop that damage.
3) Reactions not existing right now means you have far less possible tools available to prevent taking damage, and thus having to make those concentration rolls.
4) Several other concentration spells ended up being buffed in other ways because of the homebrew design, such as Flaming Sphere, which further discourages the use of Faerie Fire.
Low level DnD is considered the most balanced the game is, but all of this kind of ripped the balance apart. The more astute among you reading this (and probably remember my big thread from a month and a half ago) may realize that what I mentioned above is essentially saying that the current homebrew design has a domino effect on the balance of the rest of the game. It's THAT concept that people take issue with. At the same time, none of what I mentioned are beyond reproach either (compared to, say, proper reactions, which are still up in the air).
(On a different note, classes and archetypes that heavily rely on their unique bonus actions basically get screwed by this new emphasis on bonus action shove and jump/disengage. Classes like Fighter and Ranger that didn't really use bonus actions to begin with got indirectly majorly buffed by their existence, while classes like Bards later would be somewhat nerfed by having to consider their existence or using their bonus action on something like Bardic Inspiration. You can see similar shades of this in the decision to make Druid's wild shape go from being considered a primary action into a bonus action, and the argument there can go both ways. Had it remained a full action, they could immediately bonus action shove in the same turn, taking advantage of a possible higher strength modifier. But Wildshape being a bonus action allows them to attack or cast a spell in the same turn, allowing them to keep up with the rest of the classes in action economy in different ways otherwise.)
Remember that a common statement about DOS2 is that it lets you do anything, not everything. And that's a statement that the DOS2 community takes actual pride in. That really isn't a philosophy that should be taken into DnD combat. Maybe DnD prides itself in its ability to role play in a flexible manner, but I suppose the actual combat rules are at odds with it. Yet universally circumventing or discarding them doesn't seem like a good idea.
One can basically paint this community as engaging in hysterical pessimism, as a certain content creator had poorly decided to do last month. But the people here who argue that everything is fine and dandy and not to question Larian's vision need to realize that all of this is borne out of a certain desire for the game to be better. Understand that the people here WANT to be wrong in the end, and that they want Larian to surprise them. Because nobody should have to describe BG3 in the future with such glaring caveats, like what everyone does with POE2's poorly paced main story, or Kingmaker's kingdom management, and so on.
That said, there is one possible reason why I think these arguments got louder in recent times. A certain other EA game had a big update a few days ago, and there is a realization that BG3 is still capped at level 4 and that all communications known show an intention to keep it that way until the game is finished. For the love of everything that is holy, level 5 should not be gated behind the full release, it is absolutely something that should at least be tested maybe a month or two beforehand. It is not about impatience, it is about knowing what to expect from the entire rest of the game. That single level gives players access to crucial tools that overwhelmingly shift the game's balance in a different way.
But shapeshift is only a bonus action for Moon druids; for Land Druids, it is a full action, and basically why shapeshifting is never used as a Land druid, because wasting a turn to transform into a 20 HP weak shapeshift (even moon druid's polar bear at 30 HP is pathetically weak due to the low AC like all the forms) that promptly gets taken out in a single turn as most enemy take actions that do 12-25 damage means you've wasted a turn, and in the case of Land Druids it's lethal, because as it happened to my Druid, with the low form AC, the Ogre landed a crit and sent my Druid straight to death status, whereas if he simply had stayed in humanoid form with 19-21 AC or 30 AC with mirror images up, that would have never happened.
Moreover, even in the case of Moon druids, having access to Thunderwave as an action after wildshift bonus action is far more useful as the base strength of even "stronger" (they're all pathetically weak forms past lv2 enemies) polar bear will fail quite often the push attack roll. Thunderwave may cost a spell slot as opposed to Push, but it does damage on top, so if you fail to push the target, you at least get 8-18 damage in and don't waste a turn on a complete miss, and on top of it all the Thunderwave push and damage affect multiple targets as opposed to the single target push that does no damage.
Removing Wildshift from bonus action would further nerf the already weak shapeshift forms and mechanic, and right now most solo challenge run players optimizing druid play are NOT using the forms as they are horrendously weak compared to grabbing scale plate +1 for 19-21 AC humanoid druid form gameplay with both conjure flame blade, flame sphere, and moonbeam doing far more damage than any animal form, and then having access to Healing Word as a bonus action spell.
There's absolutely no incentive to use forms as a druid unless you're Moon and even then it's only raven form for a convoluted Misty Step equivalent or Polar Bear to serve as a ghetto, more restrictive Arcane Ward from the abjuration school (aka absorb a hit, but at the cost of doing nothing of use for your party while in form and being unable to reposition moonbeam or flame sphere for aoe and single target damage). If anything, forms need buffing, not nerfing so at least Moon druids can opt for a shapeshift centric gameplay. Particularly the tadpole druid form special power is super gimped right now and needs help.