Inflict Wounds with a +5 to hit
-5e Monster Manual 7hp & 15 AC goblins: you need a 10 to hit -> 55% chance. 3d10 will kill a 7-hp goblin 98% of the time -> 0.55*0.98 = Kill a goblin 54% of the time.
-BG3 Goblin Tacker with 13HP & 9 AC: you need a 4 to hit -> 85% chance. 3d10 will kill a 13HP goblin 78% of the time -> 0.85*0.78 = Kill a goblin 66% of the time
-BG3 Goblin Brawler with 12 HP & 12 AC: you need a 7 to hit -> 70%. 3d10 will kill a 12HP goblin 83% of the time -> 0.7*0.83 = Kill a goblin 58% of the time
-BG3 Goblin tracker #2 with 10 HP & 10AC: you need a 5 to hit -> 80%. 3d10 will kill a 10HP goblin 0.91% of the time -> 0.8*0.9 = Kill a goblin 73% of the time
-BG3 Goblin Devout with 15 HP, 14 AC: you need a 9 to hit ->60%. 3d10 will kill a 15HP goblin 64% of the time -> Kill a goblin 0.38% of the time
Taking a random sample of (non-boss) BG3 goblins, there is roughly the same chance of 1HKO'ing a BG3 goblin with Inflict Wounds as in 5e. If you consider that you have Backstab Advantage for all those BG3 goblin calculations, you're even more likely to kill said goblin. Goblin values from here: https://www.reddit.com/r/BaldursGat...lin_hpac_bloat_discussion_some_research/

This does not apply to burning hands, but that's partially because goblins still have the same Dex ST bonus as they do in 5e. All of the above goblins should have a 1-6 penalty to their STs which would do a lot towards balancing burning hands. Although I will admit that, with 3d6 damage, burning hands is still probably less likely to kill a full-health BG3 goblin (25% chance of dealing 13+ damage).

Originally Posted by Ankou
They should increase the likelihood of missing then. I prefer feeling powerful, not peashooting things down. If you miss, you miss. Feels better than limp wristed punches.
That's a fair criticism. It is definitely true that in BG3 you have a higher chance of hitting but not killing. Unfortunately that seems to go against Larian's philosophy of "missing isn't fun"...I doubt they'd make this change.

Originally Posted by 1varangian
You can always increase their numbers. That's sort of the point why Wizards and CC is a thing. Different dynamics than everyone just attacking one goblin at a time.
Larian, please only do this if battles are massively sped up. Battles can already be a slog with the current # of goblins.