If I had to guess, you may have picked up an item that was giving you a +2 (such as the circlet which gives you a +2 to animal handling).
Well, no. It would mean that I've picked something that would give me -2, since the requirement jumped from 16 to 18.If you've still got the save file for that (ideally both - the earlier save and the later one), get to the dialogue that presents you the roll and mouse hover the check - it'll show you a detail screen about what modifiers you're working with; if you've got 'key of the ancients' or anything like that showing up in the latter one ,that may be the reason.
If you roll your mouse over the attributes of your choices: [persuasion], [intimidation], etc, it will give you the same information (except the target number) before you have made your choice.
Right now the target is 19, I have +2 on intimidation and -1 on charisma, so all seems to be in order. I wish I knew about the possibility to check the target number sooner. I'll be keeping an eye on it from now on (thanks for showing me how).
However, if the target number was raised in the last couple of days, I don't think previous saves will matter, for the scene will trigger the new settings. At least that's what I think will happen.
This shtuff is getting more confusing by the minute. This isn't the only time it happened, so it's safe to assume it might happen again, I'll just have to pay closer attention to it. Perhaps then I'll get my answer.
By the way, I've mentioned this 16 point requirement in my 1-st post. Same game, same character, same situation, just different freaking number. Shadowheart became even harder to threat. I think in the studio someone really likes that bitch =)